When it comes to betting on UFC fights online, it’s imperative to find a reliable and trustworthy betting site. You want to deal with a site which is licensed by an independent authority, has solid customer support, and is consistent about it’s betting rules. In addition to avoiding red flags with unreliable betting sites, you may want to consider the following factors when placing bets on Mixed Martial Arts fights.
The signs of a dodgy betting site are not always the same. Sometimes it’s about your casino withdrawals sitting in pending for 5 days or more. Sometimes it’s about you getting ghosted by the customer support team. Sometimes betting rules are changes in real time, to your disadvantage. And, sometimes, the plan goes even further, with sites fake their licensing by editing their sidebars with non-existent banners to mimic the fact that an authority has checked and approved them.
Fighters’ Age
According to Sports Gambling Podcast, the younger fighter wins 59% of the time in the UFC. The bigger the age discrepancy, the better the odds of the younger fighter winning. Of course, sometimes a young prospect gets matched up with an experienced veteran too early in their career, and get ‘fraud checked’. However, this is the exception rather than the rule. Avoid betting on an older fighter when there is a large age gap between the opponents.
Inactivity
Avoid betting on fighters coming back from a long layoff, especially if it was injury-related. You never know how well they have recovered. While some fighters, like Tom Aspinall, can come back from a major injury and quickly win a world title, many others are never the same after a serious injury that requires surgery. Even if the reason for the layoff was not caused by an injury, aging and years away from action can really spoil a fighter’s comeback (for a somewhat recent example, see Stipe Miocic vs Jon Jones).
Undefeated Fighters
It may be tempting to place your bet on a fighter who has never been defeated; after all, they may be the next Khabib Nurmagomedov or Ilia Topuria. However, almost everyone loses sooner or later, and an undefeated fighter’s next bout may be the one where they lose the zero in their record. The longer a fighter remains undefeated, statistically speaking, the more likely they are to lose their next fight.
Weight Misses
This can be a difficult one to gauge. On one hand, you might think that the fighter who missed weight might have an unfair advantage over their opponent. And sometimes it works out that way. But statistics on this are conflicting. Some suggest that the fighter who misses weight, goes on to lose more often than not, while others indicate the opposite. A weight miss could also be indicative of injuries in training camp, or other difficulties which might prevent the fighter from performing to their fullest potential on fight night, negating the weight advantage. All in all, it may be a risky bet when one of the opponents fails to make their contracted weight.
Training Camp Injuries
If a fighter had a difficult training camp and suffered one or multiple injuries, they may not have recovered completely by fight night. Of course, fighters do their best to keep any injuries under wraps, literally and figuratively speaking – and so we don’t typically hear about injuries coming into a fight until after the fight (often as an excuse for one’s loss). One exception to this rule is Merab Dvalishvili, who seemingly flaunts every scrape and strain he suffers in training on his social media, then goes on to dominate his opponents regardless. However, on occasion, the rumors of an injury come out before the fight. In these cases, avoid betting on a fighter who has been injured.
Sudden Swings in Odds
When the odds for a fight suddenly swing from one opponent to the other, there’s usually a reason for this. The reason may not be known to the general betting public, but the insiders placing bets causing the line to swing may know something we don’t. Perhaps an injury or an unusually difficult training camp, struggles with weight cutting, or personal issues may be affecting the fighter who goes from a favorite to an underdog rapidly.
Other Shenanigans
Not everything is always above-the-line in the world of UFC betting. In 2022, former UFC fighter and trainer James Krause came under suspicion of betting irregularities concerning some of the fighters in his gym. Apparently, Darrick Minner – one of the fighters from Krause’s gym – came into his fight against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke with a serious knee injury, which he failed to disclose to the athletic commission in the pre-fight questionnaire. Minner came into the fight as a large underdog, and was quickly finished in the first round. An investigation ensued, and as a result, Minner was release from the UFC, and suspended from fighting for 29 months by Nevada Athletic Comission. Another fighter from Krause’s gym, Jeff Molina, has also received a lengthy suspension for betting against his injured teammate. Meanwhile, Krause was banned from cornering fighters at UFC events and has generally become a pariah in the MMA community. Lesson learned: some fighters and coaches are not above pulling some strings to make a few bucks on a winning bet.
Conclusion
There are many variables you should account for when placing a bet on an MMA fight, and listed above are just a few of the factors that one might consider to be a red flag. Fighters coming off a long span of inactivity, age discrepancies, perfect records, weight misses, and training injuries could all be red flags in regards to wagering. Of course, no bet is ever guaranteed to win, and MMA is a very unpredictable sport. Gamble at your own risk!