Author Archives: Jason

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis (04-06-2024)

Apr 1, 2024
Jason

Middleweight (185)
[#9] Brendan Allen (23-5-0, -208) vs. [#21] Chris Curtis (31-10-0, +168)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#18MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3
2023-06-24: W vs. [#42MW] Bruno Silva (23-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-02-25: W vs. [#20MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2024-01-20: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-10: NC vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0)
2023-04-08: L vs. [#26WW] Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brendan Allen -208 64.41%
Elo K170 Brendan Allen 2095.28 +233.56 79.32%
Elo Modified Brendan Allen 2085.52 +251.76 80.99%
Glicko-1 Brendan Allen 2185.78 +289.72 84.13%
WHR Brendan Allen 1973.53 +164.11 72.00%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 140, Chris Curtis 77
Previous Match-up Record: Chris Curtis leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#41] Damon Jackson (22-6-1, +156) vs. [#82] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0, -192)

Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (1-2-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-01-14: L vs. [#16FW] Dan Ige (18-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2
2022-09-17: W vs. [#76FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 1:09 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0)
2023-10-07: L vs. [#35FW] Bill Algeo (18-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#54LW] Jim Miller (37-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-12-10: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:30 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Hernandez -192 62.73%
Elo K170 Damon Jackson 1656.37 +37.89 55.43%
Elo Modified Damon Jackson 1661.48 +32.25 54.63%
Glicko-1 Damon Jackson 1704.49 +12.92 51.86%
WHR Damon Jackson 1665.57 +91.26 62.84%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damon Jackson 245, Alexander Hernandez 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#46] Jose Mariscal (15-6-0, +135) vs. [#110] Morgan Charriere (19-9-1, -166)

Last 3 Fights: Jose Mariscal (3-0-0)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#144FW] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2
2023-06-24: W vs. [#159LW] Trevor Peek (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-02-17: W vs. [#118FW] Guilherme Faria de Souza (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Morgan Charriere (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#534FW] Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0) via KO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1
2023-07-21: W vs. [#332LW] Diego Silva (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3
2023-04-29: W vs. [#924FW] Pedro Souza (18-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Morgan Charriere -166 59.46%
Elo K170 Jose Mariscal 1727.04 +106.94 64.92%
Elo Modified Jose Mariscal 1742.40 +109.44 65.25%
Glicko-1 Jose Mariscal 1774.05 +58.91 58.40%
WHR Jose Mariscal 1710.42 +82.76 61.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Mariscal 210, Morgan Charriere 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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This Week’s WHR Parlays…

Mar 27, 2024
Jason

This post covers the rest of March.  Hopefully we’ll hit something.  It is a bit of a dead week, so I’m bending a bit and including some lesser organizations in the parlays.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Major organizations only.  If it is a dead week, I’ll bend.  Other interesting bets may be posted in comments.

 

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot (03-30-2024)

Mar 25, 2024
Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#3/#8DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0, +116) vs. [#4/#7P4P] Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0, -141)
Manon Fiorot is the All-Time #44 ranked Women’s fighter.
Erin Blanchfield is the All-Time #48 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Manon Fiorot (3-0-0)
2023-09-02: W vs. [#5FLY/#3P4P] Rose Namajunas (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-10-22: W vs. [#10FLY] Katlyn Cerminara (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-03-26: W vs. [#12FLY] Jennifer Maia (21-10-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Erin Blanchfield (3-0-0)
2023-08-26: W vs. [#9FLY] Taila Santos (19-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2023-02-18: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:37 of round 2
2022-11-12: W vs. [#34SW] Molly McCann (14-6-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 3:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Erin Blanchfield -141 55.82%
Elo K170 Manon Fiorot 1900.55 +21.15 53.04%
Elo Modified Erin Blanchfield 1903.15 +29.37 54.22%
Glicko-1 Erin Blanchfield 1926.20 +55.87 57.97%
WHR Erin Blanchfield 1797.42 +0.53 50.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Manon Fiorot 210, Erin Blanchfield 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#11] Vicente Luque (22-9-1, -148) vs. [#25] Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0, +121)
Vicente Luque is the All-Time #41 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Vicente Luque (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#11LW] Rafael dos Anjos (32-16-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2022-08-06: L vs. [#15WW] Geoff Neal (15-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:01 of round 3
2022-04-16: L vs. [#3WW] Belal Muhammad (23-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquin Buckley (2-1-0)
2023-10-07: W vs. [#35WW] Alex Morono (23-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2023-05-20: W vs. [#81WW] Andre Fialho (16-8-0) via TKO (Head Kick) in 4:15 of round 2
2022-12-10: L vs. [#21MW] Chris Curtis (31-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:49 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Vicente Luque -148 56.87%
Elo K170 Vicente Luque 2059.66 +230.09 79.00%
Elo Modified Vicente Luque 2021.41 +189.63 74.87%
Glicko-1 Vicente Luque 2070.41 +188.13 74.70%
WHR Vicente Luque 1890.49 +171.19 72.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Vicente Luque 231, Joaquin Buckley 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#32] Bruno Silva (23-10-0, -277) vs. [#66] Chris Weidman (15-7-0, +217)
Chris Weidman is the All-Time #3 ranked Middleweight and #22 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Bruno Silva (1-2-0)
2023-10-21: L vs. [#23MW] Sharabutdin Magomedov (13-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2023-06-24: L vs. [#9MW] Brendan Allen (23-5-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1
2023-04-22: W vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via TKO (Knee and Punch) in 3:35 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chris Weidman (1-2-0)
2023-08-19: L vs. [#33MW] Brad Tavares (20-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2021-04-24: L vs. [*] Uriah Hall (17-11-0) via TKO (Leg Injury) in 0:17 of round 1
2020-08-08: W vs. [*] Omari Akhmedov (24-8-1) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Bruno Silva -277 69.95%
Elo K170 Chris Weidman 1745.05 +84.73 61.96%
Elo Modified Chris Weidman 1771.85 +85.32 62.04%
Glicko-1 Chris Weidman 1791.07 +54.93 57.84%
WHR Bruno Silva 1683.24 +148.55 70.17%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bruno Silva 161, Chris Weidman 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Bruno Silva leads 1-0
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This Week’s WHR Parlays…

Mar 20, 2024
Jason

I know I said in my last post, I was going to cover the rest of March in that one, but changed my mind.

In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:

Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:

  • Both fighters must be active (fought in 360 days prior to event).  Reduces uncertainty.
  • Both fighters must have at least 5 fights with at least 1 draw or 1 loss.  More data makes WHR happy.
  • Both fighters must be rated in the same division as the fight.  Further reduces uncertainty.
  • Major organizations only.  I may leave comments on interesting bets for other organizations.

 

Now for the parlays…

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas (03-23-2024)

Mar 18, 2024
Jason

Women Flyweight (125)
[#9/#4P4P] Rose Namajunas (11-6-0, -177) vs. [#6SW] Amanda Ribas (12-4-0, +146)
Rose Namajunas is the All-Time #10 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Rose Namajunas (1-2-0)
2023-09-02: L vs. [#3FLY/#7DD/#8P4P] Manon Fiorot (11-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2022-05-07: L vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via SD ()
2021-11-06: W vs. [#1SW/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0) via SD (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Amanda Ribas (2-1-0)
2023-11-18: W vs. [#29SW] Luana Pinheiro (11-2-0) via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches) in 3:53 of round 3
2023-06-24: L vs. [#5FLY] Maycee Barber (14-2-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 3:42 of round 2
2023-03-04: W vs. [#11FLY] Viviane Araujo (12-6-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Rose Namajunas -177 61.11%
Elo K170 Rose Namajunas 1779.79 +124.26 67.15%
Elo Modified Rose Namajunas 1755.84 +84.86 61.97%
Glicko-1 Rose Namajunas 1735.05 +75.64 60.72%
WHR Rose Namajunas 1699.09 +61.24 58.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rose Namajunas 203, Amanda Ribas 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#60] Justin Tafa (7-3-0, +209) vs. [#68] Karl Williams (9-1-0, -267)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Tafa (2-0-0, 1 NC)
2023-09-09: W vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-06-24: NC vs. [#125HW+] Austen Lane (12-4-0)
2023-02-11: W vs. [#120HW+] Parker Porter (13-9-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Karl Williams (3-0-0)
2023-05-13: W vs. [#69HW+] Chase Sherman (18-12-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2023-03-11: W vs. [#169HW+] Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
2022-09-06: W vs. [*] Jimmy Lawson (4-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Karl Williams -267 69.21%
Elo K170 Karl Williams 1548.72 +32.94 54.73%
Elo Modified Karl Williams 1622.79 +50.33 57.19%
Glicko-1 Justin Tafa 1623.74 +50.05 57.15%
WHR Justin Tafa 1521.04 +53.90 57.70%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Tafa 196, Karl Williams 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#63] Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0, -192) vs. [#156] A.J. Dobson (7-2-0, +156)

Last 3 Fights: Edmen Shahbazyan (1-2-0)
2023-05-20: L vs. [#25MW] Anthony Hernandez (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 1:01 of round 3
2022-12-10: W vs. [*] Dalcha Lungiambula (11-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:41 of round 2
2021-11-06: L vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:42 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: A.J. Dobson (1-2-0)
2023-08-12: W vs. [#175MW] Tafon Nchukwi (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2022-10-22: L vs. [#80MW] Armen Petrosyan (9-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2022-02-12: L vs. [#107MW] Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Edmen Shahbazyan -192 62.73%
Elo K170 Edmen Shahbazyan 1578.86 +173.80 73.12%
Elo Modified Edmen Shahbazyan 1592.60 +100.31 64.05%
Glicko-1 Edmen Shahbazyan 1618.65 +166.34 72.26%
WHR Edmen Shahbazyan 1543.43 +80.90 61.44%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan 308, A.J. Dobson 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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WHR Parlays – The Rest of March…

Mar 14, 2024
Jason

We debuted the “WHR Parlay” series recently and you can view that here.  We got so very close to hitting and as a result, I thought we’d try again.

An issue with the parlays, is that there are a lot checkboxes that a fight must tick off to qualify.  Therefore, I am combining multiple events in one post and am also opening it up to all of MMA.  Though there is not much betting action on non-UFC fights (as far as I can tell), if they qualify and I have the info, I will throw them in.

In this post, I will also throw in a second parlay… a collection of the best bets (favorites included).  This one is a bit more subjective as I need to “draw the line” on the amount of fights to include.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura (03-16-2024)

Mar 11, 2024
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#10] Tai Tuivasa (14-6-0, -128) vs. [#16] Marcin Tybura (24-8-0, +104)
Tai Tuivasa is the All-Time #49 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Tai Tuivasa (0-3-0)
2023-09-09: L vs. [#6HW+] Alexander Volkov (37-10-0) via Submission (Ezekiel Choke) in 4:37 of round 2
2022-12-03: L vs. [#4HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (18-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:54 of round 1
2022-09-03: L vs. [#2HW+] Ciryl Gane (12-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:23 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Marcin Tybura (2-1-0)
2023-07-22: L vs. [#3HW+] Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 1:13 of round 1
2023-02-04: W vs. [#25HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (19-6-0) via UD ()
2022-08-20: W vs. [#20HW+] Alexander Romanov (17-2-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Tai Tuivasa -128 53.38%
Elo K170 Marcin Tybura 1862.59 +104.08 64.55%
Elo Modified Marcin Tybura 1878.58 +104.84 64.65%
Glicko-1 Marcin Tybura 1900.89 +78.35 61.09%
WHR Marcin Tybura 1781.69 +89.16 62.55%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tai Tuivasa 189, Marcin Tybura 238
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 5 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#31] Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4-0, -493) vs. [#45] Ovince St. Preux (26-17-0, +350)

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (2-1-0)
2023-08-05: L vs. [#22LHW] Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) via TKO (Punches) in 1:22 of round 1
2023-05-06: W vs. [#44LHW] Devin Clark (14-9-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:28 of round 2
2022-11-19: W vs. [#29LHW] Ion Cutelaba (17-10-1) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:02 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ovince St. Preux (1-2-0)
2023-02-18: L vs. [#18LHW] Philipe Lins (18-5-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:49 of round 1
2022-05-07: W vs. [*] Mauricio Rua (27-14-1) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2021-06-26: L vs. [#64LHW] Tanner Boser (21-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:31 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kennedy Nzechukwu -493 78.91%
Elo K170 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1615.71 +83.10 61.74%
Elo Modified Kennedy Nzechukwu 1662.55 +112.03 65.59%
Glicko-1 Kennedy Nzechukwu 1701.10 +149.64 70.29%
WHR Kennedy Nzechukwu 1659.57 +120.40 66.67%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kennedy Nzechukwu 224, Ovince St. Preux 392
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[*] Mike Davis (10-2-0, -260) vs. [*] Natan Levy (8-1-0, +207)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Davis (3-0-0)
2022-10-01: W vs. [#176LW] Viacheslav Borshchev (7-3-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 29-28)
2021-01-20: W vs. [#86LW] Mason Jones (14-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-10-12: W vs. [*] Thomas Gifford (17-10-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:45 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Natan Levy (2-1-0)
2022-12-03: W vs. [#715LW] Genaro Valdez (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2022-04-30: W vs. [#209LW] Mike Breeden (11-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2021-11-20: L vs. [#41LW] Rafa Garcia (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Davis -260 68.91%
Elo K170 Mike Davis 1626.84 +90.45 62.73%
Elo Modified Mike Davis 1661.28 +100.34 64.05%
Glicko-1 Mike Davis 1678.91 +148.62 70.17%
WHR Mike Davis 1664.94 +201.00 76.08%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Davis 532, Natan Levy 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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