The fact of the matter is, people pay to see De La Hoya.  In his match-up with Mayweather, the combined purse was just over $75 million, with Mayweather receiving approximately 1/3rd of the total amount.

De La Hoya’s draw is in my opinion, finally beginning to wain, but this will likely be his final bout.  And although Pacquiao’s popularity is apparent in the western and southwestern areas of the United States, the pay-per-view amount would likely not reach the 2.4 million buys that De La Hoya and Mayweather did.  Still, it was probably a safe bet that it would challenge 1.5 million buys, which would still net Pacquiao well over $15 million at 30% of the share.

At that kind of money, what’s 10%?  Realistically, Pacquiao could not earn anywhere close to that fighting someone else (excluding Hatton in England).  My bet, is that Pacquiao and his team were overly concerned with the height and reach advantages held by De La Hoya.

However, a tremendous amount of boxing fans are taking offense to this potential match-up, one that has an outside shot to break all boxing pay-per-view records.

Why?  Most fans argue that Pacquiao is too small for the “Golden Boy”, but I beg to differ.  Yes, De La Hoya will have a distinct size advantage, but its nothing that we haven’t seen before.

The Main Argument Against the Fight

Manny Pacquiao started as a Flyweight.  This match-up is at Welterweight, which is 35 pounds above the Flyweight limit of 112.  Despite the fact that Pacquiao has tremendous skill and youth on his side, De La Hoya is no slouch and is simply too big for Pacquiao.

My Opinion

If you want to get technical, Manny Pacquiao weighed in at just 106 pounds for his first fight, which is just 1 pound above Minimumweight, the absolute lowest division in men’s boxing.

However, one needs to read between the lines and investigate this further before jumping to conclusions.

1. Pacquiao is from a (once) very poor family, in a third world country.
2. His debut took place only 5 weeks after his 16th birthday.

My point?  Before Pacquiao found fame and fortune, it is very likely that he was not getting suitable nutrition and was not done growing until the middle portion of his career.  Therefore, you can’t call him a “natural” Flyweight.  That argument is bunk and annoying.

Furthermore, have you seen Manny Pacquiao at a recent weigh-in?  His subcutaneous fat levels are minimal.  Not to mention, that he gained 12.5 pounds after his first weigh-in at Lightweight earlier this year.  HBO weighed him on fight night at 147 pounds.  In case you didn’t know, that is just 1 pound less than what Floyd Mayweather Jr. himself stated that he weighed on fight night versus De La Hoya.

With the need to trim down to only 147 rather than 135, it is very likely that Pacquiao could enter the De La Hoya fight at approximately 150 pounds.  De La Hoya will hold a slight weight advantage over him, but most experienced boxing fans expect this to only be in the area of 6-8 pounds, which is not a ridiculous difference.

I will admit, if you trust listed measurements, De La Hoya has 6 inches of reach and 4 inches of height on Pacquiao.  However, I highly doubt Pacquiao’s listed height and expect that difference to be closer to 5 inches.  Nevertheless, combat sports have weight divisions, not height or reach, so this fact is null and void, at least in my opinion.

These are the facts.

1. Pacquiao has now grown into a legitimate Lightweight, and will probably end up campaigning at Light Welterweight (140) as he seems to be increasing his musculature like a madman.
2. De La Hoya hasn’t made 147 since 2001.  He had to strip naked to make 150 in May 2008, so making weight will take its toll on him.
3. Truly great boxers can nullify a disadvantage in weight using quickness and timing.  Two of Pacquiao’s best assets.
4. These are two of the best boxers in last 15 years.  People need to shut up and appreciate the fact that they will share a ring together.

Contrary to common belief, this WILL be a competitive bout and one I will definitely watch.

Those of you who watched this bout may not have been thrilled by it, unless you understood and appreciated the historical significance.  The bout featured two future hall-of-famers who are universally recognized champions, squaring off in a bout for all of the marbles at light heavyweight.

Bernard Hopkins, 43, the former universally recognized middleweight (160) champion, enters the bout as the universally recognized light heavyweight (175) champion and as one of the top 5 boxers in the world.  After holding world titles in the Middleweight division for more then a decade,  dispatching of all comers, including fellow hall-of-famers Oscar De La Hoya, and Felix Trinidad, he was written off after losing two questionable decisions against Jermain Taylor in 2005.

After a short retirement, Hopkins stepped up 15 pounds and totally outclassed then light heavyweight champion, and top 10 pound-for-pound boxer, Antonio Tarver.  13 months later, in July 2007, he comfortably beat Winky Wright, who was top 5 pound-for-pound at the time of the bout.

At this point, Hopkins totally erased the questionable decision losses to Jermain Taylor.  It would appear that the increase in weight totally refreshed his athletic abilities and while nearing his mid 40′s, was still a force to be reckoned with.

Joe Calzaghe, 36, also a top 5 pound-for-pound boxer, just recently stepped into the global spotlight.  Having never defeated a top pound-for-pound boxer, his record was 44-0, with only one questionable decision on his ledger, that being a split decision win against Robin Reid back in 1999.  Other than that, he has won all of his fights by a comfortable margin and has held titles at super middleweight for over a decade..  Although his opposition quality has been subpar for an elite boxer, he had established himself as the universally recognized super middleweight (168) champion by defeating Mikkel Kessler in November 2007.

Although he has been perceived as one of the top boxers in the world, he had never left the continent of Europe.  Also, his opposition quality had left some doubt that he could really hang with an elite boxer.

Pre-Bout Analysis

Those attempting to analyze this bout had quite a few unanswered questions.

• Would Hopkins, 43, get old overnight?
• Can Hopkins deal with Calzaghe’s activity rate?
• Can Calzaghe hang with an elite, proven fighter?
• How would the 7 pound increase affect Calzaghe?

Hopkins is a natural counter-puncher who picks his spots.  At 43, he is unable to sustain a high workrate throughout each round, so he relies on accurate, quick power punches to seal the deal.  His lead right hand may be the best in boxing.  He is a master technician, who still has excellent defense, great reflexes, good power, above average quickness, and one of the very best chins in modern history.

Calzaghe relies on a high workrate to win.  Although he has very fast hands and great footwork, he is awkward and is susceptible to flash knockdowns.  His punches are quick, although they are often flailing and are thrown with poor technique.  These punches tend to land on his opponents, but with little power.  However, they do seem to impress judges.  Like Hopkins, his chin is one of his best assets, but unlike Hopkins, he still has outstanding stamina.  Calzaghe is also great at adapting to his opponent.

Other than the ignorant fans who expected a domination by Calzaghe, most experienced fans and analysts expected Calzaghe to prevail by a very close decision due to Calzaghe’s workrate and stamina.

The Bout

Each third of this 12 round bout had its own story.  The first third of the bout was controlled and won by Hopkins.  After knocking down Calzaghe in the first round with a vintage lead right hand, he continued to potshot Calzaghe, who couldn’t get his high workrate going.  Although Calzaghe may have won round 4, if Hopkins could keep up the pace he had going in rounds 1-3, this would’ve likely become an easy win by Hopkins.

Control of the second third of the bout shifted between Hopkins and Calzaghe.  Hopkins began to tire, while Calzaghe began to figure out Hopkins’s style and start making his high workrate and stamina a primary factor in the bout.  Although not landing the flush power punches that Hopkins was still landing, Calzaghe started to win rounds by simply out-hustling Hopkins.  Scoring of these rounds depended on what you preferred.  Hopkins’s clean power shots, or Calzaghe’s somewhat ineffective aggression.

By the time round 9 arrived, Hopkins was starting to lose steam.  Calzaghe was forcing him to fight at a faster pace than his 43 year old body can handle, and Calzaghe actually started to land frequently on Hopkins.  It would not have been a travesty to score all of the final four rounds for Calzaghe.

In the end, Calzaghe won by split decision with scores of 116-111, 115-112 in his favor, and a 114-113 for Hopkins.  I scored the bout 114-113 Calzaghe, but could’ve definitely stomached a Hopkins win, because some rounds were very close.

Now What?

Bernard Hopkins has nothing left to prove.  He is easily within the Top 100 boxers of all-time and a surefire, first ballot hall-of-famer.  Even though he is still on the elite level, I fear that a sharp decline in his skills is near.  If he wants to make a few more dollars, the rematch with Felix Trinidad is still out there and that would be an easy, easy win for Hopkins.

Joe Calzaghe may be able to squeeze another bout or two into his prime/near-prime, but there is nothing out there too interesting on the competitive level.  As for money-making match-ups, he could fight Roy Jones, which would be an easy win now that Jones is nearing 40.   Same goes for Antonio Tarver.

Believe it or not, a boxer named Frankie Hines lost 51 consecutive bouts before winning again.  The streak spanned over 7 years (Dec 1993 – Mar 2001).   He won twice more after this, and retired with a record of 17-120-5.  Boxers, Frank Wuestenberghs, and Arv Mittoo, receive the silver and bronze, with streaks of 49, and 46, respectively.

I discovered that a boxer with any reach advantage at all won 57.1% of the time (excluding draws). At two inches or more, this went up to 58.4%. It progressively increased all the way up to 64.6% at 8 inches or more. At 10 inches or more, the number actually dropped, but I attribute this to the small subset, and because some “freak” match-ups may contaminate the results.

Some say its not the size that matters, but these results suggest more than a negligible difference. They suggest size DOES matter.  You might’ve suspected such results with regards to height, but did you expect it with regards to reach alone?

• From 1980 to present, a boxer losing by knockout, technical knockout, or corner retirement, won the rematch about 17.3% of the time. The interesting part is, this number drops as we only consider more recent bouts.
• From 1990 to present, the figure drops to approximately 16%.
• From 2000 to present, it plummets to about 13.3%.
• 2005 to present? 12.6%

One can only assume why this trend occurs. Has matchmaking gotten worse? Are the winning boxers simply taking their careers more seriously?

1.  Floyd Mayweather Jr. - Declaring #1 is easy.  Fresh off of his dominant win over Ricky Hatton, Floyd has proven time and time again that he is the top fighter in the world, in terms of ability, and accomplishment.

2.  Manny Pacquiao – By default more than anything, Pacquiao remains at #2.  I can’t say I’ve been impressed with his recent performances.  But, his accomplishments in the past few years assure that he remains as high as #2.  However, this placement will definitely be up for debate after his March fight with Juan Manuel Marquez.

3.  Juan Manuel Marquez – JM Marquez is likely the best technical boxer in the entire sport.  In his first bout at 130 against Barrera, he was not at all impressive.  However, he has since looked excellent.  Look for him to knock off Pacquiao in March.

4.  Bernard Hopkins – Although at age 43, his skills are leaving him, you cannot deny his recent ledger.  In the past couple years, he may very well have the best opposition quality of anyone in the sport.  Not to mention that he is THE Light Heavyweight champion of the world.  He always finds a way to win, but along with his gradually declining skills, he tends to leave the fight’s decision in the judge’s hands a bit too much.  This is a recipe for disaster, as he found out in his fights with Jermain Taylor.

5.  Joe Calzaghe – Let it be known that this placement is justified by his skill level and not by his accomplishments.  Before he fought Kessler, I had him at around #13.  However, some other fighters above him lost, and he did thoroughly impress me in decisioning a strong, but overrated and robotic Kessler.  Although Calzaghe currently holds a Top 5 spot, he’s only holding onto it by the skin of his teeth.

6.  Israel Vazquez - Although he lost the first fight against Marquez, I think it was more of a fluke situation due to the nose injury.  I didn’t think this at the time, but he sure validated that line of thought after stamping out Rafael in the rematch.  The trilogy should answer a lot of questions, but I think Vazquez is tops at 122.

7.  Kelly Pavlik – Some think this is a bit of an overshoot, but let’s face it.  The guy has power.  And when you can take a shot, power gets you places.  He knocked out the undisputed Middleweight champion after nearly being knocked out himself in the 2nd round.  I don’t fancy his chances in the rematch though, as his technical prowess is not great.

8.  Winky Wright - Wright, like Hopkins, may be in decline.  But you can’t look past his recent body of work, which leaves him with some prestige and a top 10 ranking.  In my book, “pound for pound”  is more about proof, then it is potential.

9.  Miguel Cotto - Although his performance against Shane Mosley was impressive, I don’t think it justified a unanimous decision win.  The fight felt more like a draw, but I have to give Cotto his just due.

10.  Rafael Marquez - Dominated at 118, but is finding it harder to take a shot against a big puncher (Vazquez) at 122.  I think his “pound for pound” potential is limited, but like his brother Juan Manuel, he is one of the most technically sound boxers in the entire sport.

Rounding out the Top 25

11.  Shane Mosley

12.  Jermain Taylor

13.  Ricky Hatton

14.  Juan Diaz

15.  Chris John

16.  Wladimir Klitschko

17.  Cristian Mijares

18.  Arthur Abraham

19.  Oscar De La Hoya

20.  Cory Spinks

21.  Joan Guzman

22.  Hozumi Hasegawa

23.  Mikkel Kessler

24.  Alexander Munoz

25.  Nonito Donaire