Author Archives: jcs

2019 Awards: Most Noteworthy Match of the Year

3 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Most Noteworthy Match of the Year:

Khabib Nurmagomedov SUB(3) Dustin Poirier

A fairly easy choice.  The undefeated Khabib, takes on Dustin Poirier, recent conquerer of Alvarez and Holloway.

2019 Awards: Upsets of the Year

2 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Note: We have three ways that we derive biggest “upsets” based on points difference between winner and loser.

“Most Noteworthy” (X minus Y / normalized by division)
“Most Noteworthy – Glicko” (GlickoX minus GlickoY)
“Most Lopsided” (X divided by Y)

 

Most Noteworthy: Walt Harris KO(1) Alexey Oleynik

While not a betting upset, Oleynik was fringe Top 10 and Harris was still an unproven fighter prior to this.

 

Most Noteworthy (Glicko): Kai Asakura TKO(1) Kyoji Horiguchi

Horiguchi was that rare fighter who’d occasionally show up at the bottom of the P4P lists, yet not actively competing in the UFC.  Asakura knocked him out and down a few notches in the rankings.

 

Most Lopsided: Timofey Nastyukhin TKO(1) Eddie Alvarez

Alvarez was annihilated by a totally unknown fighter in his first One Championship fight.  Maybe he took the competition a bit too lightly, or maybe he left a piece of himself in the UFC.

Fight Matrix Program – PFL 2019 #10 (12-31-2019)

30 Dec , 2019,
jcs

Women Featherweight (154)
[#5] Larissa Pacheco (13-3-0, 153.6lb, +711) vs. [#7] Kayla Harrison (6-0-0, 154.8lb, -1245)

Last 3 Fights: Larissa Pacheco (2-1-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#8FW] Sarah Kaufman (21-5-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-07-11: W vs. [#29FW] Bobbi Jo Dalziel (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:31 of round 1
2019-05-09: L vs. [#7FW] Kayla Harrison (6-0-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Kayla Harrison (3-0-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#29FW] Bobbi Jo Dalziel (5-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:32 of round 1
2019-07-11: W vs. [#55FW] Morgan Frier (4-3-0) via Submission (Key Lock) in 3:35 of round 1
2019-05-09: W vs. [#5FW] Larissa Pacheco (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kayla Harrison – Win%: 88.24
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kayla Harrison (1440.10) [+10.97] – Win%: 51.25
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kayla Harrison (1547.65) [+50.90] – Win%: 55.55
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Kayla Harrison (1481.80) [+14.37] – Win%: 52.79
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Larissa Pacheco 81, Kayla Harrison 81
Previous Match-up Record: Kayla Harrison leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (169)
[#39] David Michaud (18-5-0, 169.5lb, +113) vs. [#53] Ray Cooper III (19-7-1, 168.6lb, -142)

Last 3 Fights: David Michaud (3-0-0)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#69WW] Glaico Franca (22-6-0) via MD ()
2019-10-11: W vs. [#62WW] John Howard (28-16-1) via UD ()
2019-07-11: W vs. [#80WW] Handesson Ferreira (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Ray Cooper III (1-1-1)
2019-10-11: W vs. [#89WW] Chris Curtis (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:11 of round 2
2019-10-11: D vs. [#88WW] Sadibou Sy (8-5-2) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-07-11: L vs. [#62WW] John Howard (28-16-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:23 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ray Cooper III – Win%: 55.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): David Michaud (1821.04) [+103.32] – Win%: 61.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): David Michaud (1785.77) [+65.77] – Win%: 57.15
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): David Michaud (1763.86) [+5.34] – Win%: 51.00
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Michaud 81, Ray Cooper III 81
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: David Michaud leads 2-1
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Heavyweight (258)
[#20] Ali Isaev (8-0-0, 258.8lb, -507) vs. [#36] Jared Rosholt (20-7-0, 250.6lb, +366)

Last 3 Fights: Ali Isaev (3-0-0)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#35HW+] Denis Goltsov (25-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 3
2019-10-31: W vs. [#51HW+] Kelvin Tiller (11-5-0) via UD ()
2019-08-08: W vs. [#138HW+] Carl Seumanutafa (12-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Jared Rosholt (3-0-0)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#51HW+] Kelvin Tiller (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-10-31: W vs. [#86HW+] Muhammed DeReese (8-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:41 of round 1
2019-08-08: W vs. [#55HW+] Satoshi Ishii (22-10-1) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ali Isaev – Win%: 79.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ali Isaev (1777.99) [+35.78] – Win%: 54.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ali Isaev (1818.91) [+48.46] – Win%: 55.28
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ali Isaev (1799.19) [+51.12] – Win%: 59.42
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ali Isaev 61, Jared Rosholt 61
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – RIZIN 20 (12-31-2019)

Dec , 2019,
jcs

Women Atomweight Championship (108)
[#1/#6DD/#5P4P] Ayaka Hamasaki (19-2-0, 107.7lb, -106) vs. [#2/#10DD] Seo Hee Ham (22-8-0, 107.8lb, -128)
Ayaka Hamasaki is the All-Time #6 ranked Women’s fighter.
Seo Hee Ham is the All-Time #35 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Ayaka Hamasaki (3-0-0)
2019-08-18: W vs. [#14AW] Suwanan Boonsorn (4-2-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:29 of round 1
2019-06-02: W vs. [#3AW] Jinh Yu Frey (8-4-0) via UD ()
2018-12-31: W vs. [#8AW] Kanna Asakura (16-4-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:34 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Seo Hee Ham (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#7AW] Miyuu Yamamoto (5-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:42 of round 2
2019-07-28: W vs. [#9AW] Tomo Maesawa (13-10-0) via TKO (Knees) in 3:14 of round 1
2018-12-15: W vs. [#11AW] Jeong Eun Park (7-6-1) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Seo Hee Ham – Win%: 52.17
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ayaka Hamasaki (1721.26) [+148.00] – Win%: 66.29
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ayaka Hamasaki (1718.22) [+128.62] – Win%: 63.71
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Ayaka Hamasaki (1697.97) [+94.67] – Win%: 67.12
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ayaka Hamasaki 135, Seo Hee Ham 80
Previous Match-up Record: Ayaka Hamasaki leads 2-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ayaka Hamasaki leads 6-4
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Lightweight (157)
[#43] Tofiq Musayev (16-3-0, 156.9lb, -170) vs. [#45] Johnny Case (27-6-1, 156.9lb, +132)

Last 3 Fights: Tofiq Musayev (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#87LW] Damien Brown (19-13-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:14 of round 1
2019-06-02: W vs. [#119LW] Daron Cruickshank (22-13-0) via UD ()
2018-12-31: W vs. [#431LW] Nobumitsu Osawa (12-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:19 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Case (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#129LW] Roberto de Souza (9-1-0) via TKO (Submission to Punch) in 1:15 of round 1
2019-07-28: W vs. [#202LW] Satoru Kitaoka (42-20-9) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2018-12-31: W vs. [#103LW] Yusuke Yachi (21-9-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 4:47 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tofiq Musayev – Win%: 59.36
Elo Favorite (Standard): Johnny Case (1811.05) [+18.84] – Win%: 52.15
Elo Favorite (Modified): Johnny Case (1806.39) [+9.23] – Win%: 51.01
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Johnny Case (1802.04) [+8.14] – Win%: 51.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Tofiq Musayev 80, Johnny Case 80
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (157)
[#12] Patricky Freire (22-8-0, 156.4lb, -443) vs. [#82] Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos (10-1-0, 155.8lb, +316)
Patricky Freire is the All-Time #46 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Patricky Freire (3-0-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#203LW] Tatsuya Kawajiri (37-14-2) via KO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 1:10 of round 1
2019-02-09: W vs. [#88LW] Ryan Scope (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-09-21: W vs. [#345LW] Roger Huerta (24-12-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#210LW] Hiroto Uesako (18-9-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 3:55 of round 1
2019-04-21: L vs. [#95FW] Mikuru Asakura (12-1-0) via UD ()
2018-08-12: W vs. [#103LW] Yusuke Yachi (21-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:32 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Patricky Freire – Win%: 77.23
Elo Favorite (Standard): Patricky Freire (1998.49) [+376.15] – Win%: 84.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Patricky Freire (1941.33) [+300.83] – Win%: 78.86
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Patricky Freire (1906.50) [+211.70] – Win%: 83.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Patricky Freire 80, Luiz Gustavo Felix dos Santos 80
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – Bellator 237: Fedor vs. Rampage (12-28-2019)

23 Dec , 2019,
jcs

Heavyweight (265)
[#25] Fedor Emelianenko (38-6-0) vs. [*] Quinton Jackson (38-13-0)
Fedor Emelianenko is the All-Time #1 ranked Heavyweight and #5 ranked Absolute fighter.
Quinton Jackson is the All-Time #28 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Fedor Emelianenko (2-1-0)
2019-01-26: L vs. [#7HW+] Ryan Bader (27-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:35 of round 1
2018-10-13: W vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (30-17-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:46 of round 1
2018-04-28: W vs. [#33HW+] Frank Mir (19-13-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:48 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Quinton Jackson (1-2-0)
2018-09-29: W vs. [*] Wanderlei Silva (35-14-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 2
2018-01-20: L vs. [*] Chael Sonnen (30-17-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-03-31: L vs. [#62LHW] Muhammed Lawal (21-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Fedor Emelianenko (1938.70) [+147.43] – Win%: 66.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Fedor Emelianenko (1941.39) [+168.05] – Win%: 67.60
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Fedor Emelianenko (1915.70) [+108.98] – Win%: 69.18
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Fedor Emelianenko 336, Quinton Jackson 455
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 6 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#16] Michael Chandler (19-5-0) vs. [#66] Sidney Outlaw (14-3-0)
Michael Chandler is the All-Time #21 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Michael Chandler (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#4FW] Patricio Freire (30-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:01 of round 1
2018-12-14: W vs. [#30LW] Brent Primus (9-1-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2018-04-13: W vs. [#55LW] Brandon Girtz (16-8-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 4:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Sidney Outlaw (3-0-0)
2019-11-15: W vs. [#346LW] Roger Huerta (24-12-1) via UD ()
2019-05-17: W vs. [#565LW] Cesar Balmaceda (6-2-0) via SUB in 2:30 of round 1
2018-12-21: W vs. [#328LW] Zach Fears (10-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 4:52 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Michael Chandler (1951.78) [+229.17] – Win%: 74.02
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michael Chandler (1902.13) [+152.42] – Win%: 66.09
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Michael Chandler (1893.90) [+124.75] – Win%: 71.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Michael Chandler 231, Sidney Outlaw 43
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#23] Lorenz Larkin (21-7-0) vs. [#148] Keita Nakamura (35-10-2)

Last 3 Fights: Lorenz Larkin (3-0-0)
2019-10-04: W vs. [#36WW] Andrey Koreshkov (22-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-12: W vs. [#162WW] Ion Pascu (18-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-01-26: W vs. [#108WW] Fernando Gonzalez (28-18-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Keita Nakamura (2-1-0)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#427WW] Marcos Yoshio Souza (8-2-0) via TKO (Corner Stoppage) in 1:15 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#118WW] Sultan Aliev (15-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#357WW] Salim Touahri (10-4-0) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Elo Favorite (Standard): Lorenz Larkin (1967.32) [+366.32] – Win%: 84.20
Elo Favorite (Modified): Lorenz Larkin (1896.42) [+296.21] – Win%: 78.53
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Lorenz Larkin (1883.80) [+242.60] – Win%: 85.85
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Lorenz Larkin 85, Keita Nakamura 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night 165: Edgar vs. Zombie (12-21-2019)

19 Dec , 2019,
jcs

Featherweight (145)
[#5] Frankie Edgar (23-7-1, +151) vs. [#15] Chan Sung Jung (15-5-0, -178)
Frankie Edgar is the All-Time #7 ranked Featherweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Frankie Edgar (1-2-0)
2019-07-27: L vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
2018-04-21: W vs. [#24FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#3FW] Brian Ortega (14-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Chan Sung Jung (2-1-0)
2019-06-22: W vs. [#19FW] Renato Carneiro (13-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:58 of round 1
2018-11-10: L vs. [#10FW] Yair Rodriguez (13-2-0) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 5
2017-02-04: W vs. [#100LW] Dennis Bermudez (17-9-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:49 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Chan Sung Jung – Win%: 61.64
Elo Favorite (Standard): Frankie Edgar (2040.90) [+203.44] – Win%: 71.69
Elo Favorite (Modified): Frankie Edgar (2015.92) [+183.30] – Win%: 69.05
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Frankie Edgar (2016.03) [+176.11] – Win%: 78.55
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Frankie Edgar 147, Chan Sung Jung 182
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Frankie Edgar leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#10] Volkan Oezdemir (16-4-0, +128) vs. [#18] Aleksandar Rakic (12-1-0, -153)
Volkan Oezdemir is the All-Time #40 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Volkan Oezdemir (1-2-0)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#21LHW] Ilir Latifi (14-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:31 of round 2
2019-03-16: L vs. [#8LHW] Dominick Reyes (12-0-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-27: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Aleksandar Rakic (3-0-0)
2019-06-01: W vs. [#32LHW] Jimi Manuwa (17-6-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:42 of round 1
2018-12-08: W vs. [#57LHW] Devin Clark (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 1
2018-07-22: W vs. [#143LHW] Justin Ledet (9-2-0) via UD (30-24, 30-24, 30-25)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Aleksandar Rakic – Win%: 57.96
Elo Favorite (Standard): Volkan Oezdemir (1798.80) [+8.88] – Win%: 51.01
Elo Favorite (Modified): Volkan Oezdemir (1825.49) [+42.96] – Win%: 54.69
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Volkan Oezdemir (1819.74) [+41.03] – Win%: 57.72
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Volkan Oezdemir 133, Aleksandar Rakic 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#168LW] Charles Jourdain (9-2-0, +234) vs. [*] Doo Ho Choi (14-3-0, -289)

Last 3 Fights: Charles Jourdain (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#42LW] Desmond Green (23-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2019-04-11: W vs. [#234LW] Damien Lapilus (18-12-2) via TKO (Punches) in 2:06 of round 5
2018-12-07: W vs. [#229FW] Alex Morgan (9-4-0) via SUB in 4:38 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Doo Ho Choi (1-2-0)
2018-01-14: L vs. [#11FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-17-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:36 of round 2
2016-12-10: L vs. [#24FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2016-07-08: W vs. [#132LW] Thiago Tavares (22-10-1) via KO (Punches) in 2:42 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Doo Ho Choi – Win%: 71.27
Elo Favorite (Standard): Doo Ho Choi (1715.22) [+213.20] – Win%: 72.59
Elo Favorite (Modified): Doo Ho Choi (1732.83) [+209.32] – Win%: 71.43
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Doo Ho Choi (1689.63) [+149.97] – Win%: 76.11
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Charles Jourdain 217, Doo Ho Choi 706
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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