Author Archives: jcs

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cerrone (01-18-2020)

13 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Welterweight (170)
[#16] Donald Cerrone (36-13-0, +247) vs. [*] Conor McGregor (21-4-0, -316)
Conor McGregor is the All-Time #43 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (1-2-0)
2019-09-14: L vs. [#4LW] Justin Gaethje (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1
2019-06-08: L vs. [#2LW/#5DD/#9P4P] Tony Ferguson (25-3-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 2
2019-05-04: W vs. [#12LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (49-45, 49-45, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Conor McGregor (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#4P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Neck Crank) in 3:03 of round 4
2016-11-12: W vs. [#27WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:04 of round 2
2016-08-20: W vs. [#11WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via MD (47-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Conor McGregor – Win%: 72.49
Elo Favorite (Standard): Conor McGregor (2172.99) [+190.54] – Win%: 70.49
Elo Favorite (Modified): Conor McGregor (2111.55) [+152.79] – Win%: 66.12
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Conor McGregor (2112.86) [+120.48] – Win%: 70.54
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 126, Conor McGregor 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Conor McGregor leads 3-2
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#3] Holly Holm (12-5-0, -137) vs. [#5] Raquel Pennington (10-7-0, +112)
Holly Holm is the All-Time #17 ranked Women’s fighter.
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #47 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Holly Holm (1-2-0)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 4:10 of round 1
2018-06-09: W vs. [#6FW] Megan Anderson (9-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1FW/#5DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (21-2-0) via UD (49-46, 48-47, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#6BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#2BW/#8DD] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-12: L vs. [#1BW/#1DD/#1P4P] Amanda Nunes (19-4-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 2:36 of round 5

Odds Favorite (Implied): Holly Holm – Win%: 55.06
Elo Favorite (Standard): Raquel Pennington (1583.55) [+56.64] – Win%: 56.43
Elo Favorite (Modified): Raquel Pennington (1542.93) [+10.96] – Win%: 51.20
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Holly Holm (1561.35) [+30.00] – Win%: 55.62
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Holly Holm 196, Raquel Pennington 182
Previous Match-up Record: Holly Holm leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raquel Pennington leads 2-1
.

Heavyweight (265)
[#18] Alexey Oleynik (59-13-1, +110) vs. [#58] Maurice Greene (8-3-0, -135)

Last 3 Fights: Alexey Oleynik (1-2-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#14HW+] Walt Harris (13-7-0) via KO (Knee and Punches) in 0:12 of round 1
2019-04-20: L vs. [#9HW+] Alistair Overeem (45-18-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-09-15: W vs. [#19HW+] Mark Hunt (13-14-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maurice Greene (2-1-0)
2019-10-26: L vs. [#36HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:11 of round 1
2019-06-29: W vs. [#72HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:38 of round 1
2019-03-09: W vs. [#94HW+] Jeff Hughes (10-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Maurice Greene – Win%: 54.67
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alexey Oleynik (1634.72) [+94.73] – Win%: 60.65
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alexey Oleynik (1693.73) [+155.53] – Win%: 66.39
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alexey Oleynik (1680.24) [+164.59] – Win%: 78.08
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexey Oleynik 182, Maurice Greene 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Read More…

Highest Current Ratings (by Age)

12 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Taking a page out of ESPN’s book (Ranking the best boxers by age), here are the highest rated active fighters by current age (using Glicko, FM Division Dominance, FM “P4P” points)

Age DD P4P Glicko
15 Yoo Jin Shin (1) Yoo Jin Shin (1) Yoo Jin Shin (1510)
16 Liandra Kemelly Freitas de Souza (1) Liandra Kemelly Freitas de Souza (1) Jhenifer Katrine Vasconcelos (1733)
Nehoray Nahmani (1733)
17 Rodrigo Sobrinho de Moura (1) Rodrigo Sobrinho de Moura (3) Welisson dos Santos Paiva (1959)
18 Cristian Entony Silva Fernandes (1) Leonardo Feitosa (3) Leonardo Feitosa (1886)
19 Makoto Takahashi (1) Makoto Takahashi (15) Makoto Takahashi (2058)
20 Kay Hansen (1) Kay Hansen (7) Chase Hooper (2097)
21 Maycee Barber (1) Maycee Barber (19) Christian Lee (2488)
22 Yadong Song (1) Salahdine Parnasse (24) Salahdine Parnasse (2368)
23 Valesca Machado da Silva (1) Arman Tsarukyan (15) Ismail Naurdiev (2356)
24 A.J. McKee (57) A.J. McKee (44) A.J. McKee (2590)
25 Arnold Allen (1) Arnold Allen (24) Mukhamed Berkhamov (2420)
26 Petr Yan (156) Petr Yan (36) Petr Yan (2591)
27 Kevin Lee (121) Rose Namajunas (44) Natan Schulte (2557)
28 Max Holloway (413) Max Holloway (88) Max Holloway (2748)
29 Robert Whittaker (152) Kyoji Horiguchi (93) Robert Whittaker (2700)
30 Dustin Poirier (378) Israel Adesanya (168) Israel Adesanya (2827)
31 Khabib Nurmagomedov (673) Khabib Nurmagomedov (258) Khabib Nurmagomedov (2950)
32 Kamaru Usman (511) Jon Jones (459) Jon Jones (2943)
33 Francis Ngannou (219) Demetrious Johnson (336) Francis Ngannou (2757)
34 Jussier Formiga (157) Cristiane Justino (58) Gegard Mousasi (2736)
35 Tony Ferguson (425) Tony Ferguson (172) Tony Ferguson (2875)
36 Rafael Lovato Jr. (133) Thiago Santos (41) Ryan Bader (2819)
37 Stipe Miocic (507) Stipe Miocic (254) Stipe Miocic (2930)
38 Frankie Edgar (91) Michel Prazeres (30) Frankie Edgar (2430)
39 Bibiano Fernandes (51) Bibiano Fernandes (44) Bibiano Fernandes (2533)
40 Daniel Cormier (342) Daniel Cormier (175) Daniel Cormier (2864)
41 Jon Fitch (50) Jon Fitch (31) Jon Fitch (2617)
42 Yoel Romero (132) Demian Maia (37) Demian Maia (2673)
43 Fedor Emelianenko (1) Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (20) Fedor Emelianenko (2535)
44 Cheick Kongo (1) Cheick Kongo (34) Cheick Kongo (2523)
45 Miyuu Yamamoto (1) Miyuu Yamamoto (9) Mark Hunt (2153)
46 Masaya Takita (1) Masaya Takita (2) Maxim Novoselov (1945)
47 Piotr Swierczewski (1) Joe Perry (1) Valid Abdurachmanov (1783)
48 Ryuta Sakurai (1) Ryuta Sakurai (2) Ryuta Sakurai (1929)
49 Antonio McKee (1) Kazuyuki Fujita (2) Antonio McKee (2118)
50 Genilton Tavares (1) Genilton Tavares (1) Chuck Liddell (2082)
51 Masahiro Oishi (1) Masahiro Oishi (1) Masahiro Oishi (1663)
52 Yasuko Tamada (1) Lee Mein (1) Antonio Graceffo (1959)
53 Ramazan Ramazanov (1) Ramazan Ramazanov (1) Ramazan Ramazanov (2043)

 

We don’t have every single birth date, so if there is an obvious miss, let us know.

2019 Awards: Women’s Fighters of the Year

9 Jan , 2020,
jcs

As a recap, most “Fighter of the Year” awards on other sites are really “Breakout Fighter of the Year” awards in that fighters who win, were usually not top fighters in the beginning of the year, but became so by the end of the year.

A fighter like this can and has won our FotY awards, but our award is more about maintaining a high standing during the award year by performing well a sufficient number of times and against a sufficient quality of opponents.  It is more comparable to a season MVP in major team sports, not a playoffs/surprise MVP.

 

Co-Winners: Amanda Nunes, Valentina Shevchenko

The Top 2 from 2018, share the title for 2019 as their achievements were virtually identical.

 

3rd Place: Weili Zhang

With two dominant wins in the UFC, the new Strawweight champion rounds out the Top 3.

2019 Awards: Upsets of the Year (Addendum)

5 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Since we now post Glicko-based ratings, a 100% mathematically pure, albeit very limited system, I thought I’d use those ratings for more than just ranking.  You may have noticed in a recent award post, I mentioned the biggest upset of the year based on Glicko rating point difference, which was Asakura KO(1) Horiguchi.

That upset still had some basic requirements, you can check the MMA Awards page for more details.  Simply put, the loser has to be active and relevant on the world scale.

I thought it’d be interesting to see what the absolute biggest upset was in 2019, regardless of relevance.

I was shocked to see a 852.34 point difference where a fighter named Anthony Formoso (7-0) lost by submission, to a fighter named Chris “The Killer Skater” Sandt (1-16).  Yes, an undefeated fighter lost to a 1-16 opponent.  An 852.34 point difference roughly equates to a 0.1% chance of an upset.

Using this method, this is actually the third biggest upset of all-time, with the biggest being King Mo beating Travis Wiuff (+913.22) in his debut back in 2008, and the runner-up being Mark Hunt’s 2005 split decision victory over Cro Cop (+911.67).  Though, in these contests, King Mo and Mark Hunt both had a past high-level combat sports related pedigree.  The same applies in the fourth biggest upset — Joe Schilling KO(2) Melvin Manhoef.

2019 Awards: Rookies of the Year

4 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Men: Juancamilo Ronderos

This one wasn’t close.  4-0 on the year, with a ranking easily within the Top 50 at Flyweight.

 

Women: Maria Laura Alves

No real breakaway candidate for this award, but Alves edges it, ending at #50 in the 115 division.

Honorable Mentions: Ewelina Wozniak, Nong Stamp

2019 Awards: Comeback & Most Improved Fighter of the Year

Jan , 2020,
jcs

As a refresher, our “comeback” award is about coming back from inactivity or major injury (that we know about) and in doing so, really impressing.  You can see more details on the awards page about specific qualifiers.

Comeback Fighter of the Year: Nate Diaz

Although he went an even .500 on the year, he ended on the fringes of the Top 10 at Welterweight.

 

Most Improved Fighter of the Year: Jairzinho Rozenstruik

5-0 on the year and stoppages over Arlovski and Overeem elevate Rozenstruik to the doorstep of a title opportunity, but he’ll need to get past Ngannou before that becomes a reality.

2019 Awards: Most Noteworthy Match of the Year

3 Jan , 2020,
jcs

Most Noteworthy Match of the Year:

Khabib Nurmagomedov SUB(3) Dustin Poirier

A fairly easy choice.  The undefeated Khabib, takes on Dustin Poirier, recent conquerer of Alvarez and Holloway.