Author Archives: Jason

Fight Matrix Program – UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (2020-07-11)

9 Jul , 2020,
Jason

Welterweight Championship (170)
[#1/#3DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (16-1-0, -250) vs. [#2] Jorge Masvidal (35-13-0, +199)
Kamaru Usman is the All-Time #6 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Jorge Masvidal is the All-Time #24 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Kamaru Usman (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#4WW] Colby Covington (15-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5
2019-03-02: W vs. [#6WW] Tyron Woodley (19-5-1) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#11WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) via UD (49-45, 50-43, 48-47)

Last 3 Fights: Jorge Masvidal (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#12WW] Nate Diaz (20-12-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 3
2019-07-06: W vs. [*] Ben Askren (19-2-0) via KO (Flying Knee) in 0:05 of round 1
2019-03-16: W vs. [#8MW] Darren Till (18-2-1) via KO (Punches) in 3:05 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kamaru Usman -250 68.11%
Elo K170 Kamaru Usman 2396.13 +176.08 69.09%
Elo Modified Kamaru Usman 2317.36 +101.19 60.90%
Glicko-1 Kamaru Usman 2384.93 +27.47 53.95%
WHR Kamaru Usman 2146.61 +63.71 57.22%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kamaru Usman 210, Jorge Masvidal 252
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Kamaru Usman leads 1-0
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Featherweight Championship (145)
[#1/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0, -217) vs. [#2/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0, +176)
Alexander Volkanovski is the All-Time #7 ranked Featherweight fighter.
Max Holloway is the All-Time #2 ranked Featherweight and #14 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkanovski (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#3BW] Jose Aldo (28-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-12-29: W vs. [*] Chad Mendes (18-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:14 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0) via UD (50-45, 48-47, 48-47)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#7FW] Frankie Edgar (23-8-1) via UD (50-45, 49-46, 48-47)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#3LW/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (26-6-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Alexander Volkanovski -217 65.38%
Elo K170 Alexander Volkanovski 2308.02 +119.40 63.31%
Elo Modified Alexander Volkanovski 2269.35 +115.50 62.38%
Glicko-1 Alexander Volkanovski 2338.08 +89.98 62.67%
WHR Alexander Volkanovski 2101.19 +50.64 55.76%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alexander Volkanovski 210, Max Holloway 210
Previous Match-up Record: Alexander Volkanovski leads 1-0-0
Wins Against Common Opposition: Max Holloway leads 2-1
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Bantamweight Championship (135)
[#3] Jose Aldo (28-6-0, +180) vs. [#4] Petr Yan (14-1-0, -224)
Jose Aldo is the All-Time #3 ranked Absolute fighter.
Petr Yan is the All-Time #40 ranked Bantamweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jose Aldo (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1BW/#9DD] Marlon Moraes (23-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#1FW/#4DD/#6P4P] Alexander Volkanovski (21-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#25LW] Renato Carneiro (14-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 0:44 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Petr Yan (3-0-0)
2019-12-14: W vs. [#16BW] Urijah Faber (35-11-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 0:43 of round 3
2019-06-08: W vs. [#14BW] Jimmie Rivera (22-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#10BW] John Dodson (21-11-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Petr Yan -224 65.94%
Elo K170 Petr Yan 2060.78 +70.94 58.03%
Elo Modified Petr Yan 2050.13 +23.41 52.56%
Glicko-1 Jose Aldo 2118.97 +27.90 54.01%
WHR Petr Yan 1993.22 +59.83 56.79%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Aldo 210, Petr Yan 210
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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WHR Ratings Updated (Again)

6 Jul , 2020,
Jason

Thanks to computerrank over at BoxRec, WHR framework has been updated to allow for explicit scoring of win types (like Glicko and standard system).  See the FAQ for more info.

 

WHR Career Histories of Fighters who set All-Time WHR Records

27 Jun , 2020,
Jason

One more fancy graph.  WHR histories for all fighters who set all-time highest WHR records during their career.

In other words… fighters that (by WHR standards) were “the best fighters ever” at some point when they fought.  Josh Barnett is a bit of a surprise… otherwise, names we all expect.

WHR History: Jones, Cormier, Miocic

Jun , 2020,
Jason

Three guys whose careers have been associated with one another… If Jones/Miocic ever happens, it will all come full circle.

WHR Heavyweight History: Top 10 All-Time Heavyweights

25 Jun , 2020,
Jason

While WHR’s superiority as a current ranking system is in question, its ability to view the historical scene is probably unparalleled.  To demonstrate, I took the Top 10 Heavyweights from the All-Time Rankings and dumped their WHR ratings, fight-by-fight, into a chart.

WHR… and how it really differs from Elo/Glicko

23 Jun , 2020,
Jason

If you’re a frequent visitor, you may have noticed that we’ve added four purely mathematical variants of named rating systems to the ranking pages.  Two versions of Elo, Glicko-1 and the latest being WHR.

You’ll see some basic info within our FAQ page and can Google for more.  To make a long story super short, Elo is the grandfather of most like systems.  It has been around for ages and is super simple.  Elo doesn’t care about inactivity or inconsistencies.  The process starts from day 1 and moves chronologically throughout time, every competitor starts with a starter rating, which is then modified with each result.  Glicko-1 is a very similar system to Elo, except it has the concept of “rating deviation” which allows competitors’ ratings to deviate more or less, given when they fought last.  There is also a second version of Glicko, which tosses in a factor called volatility — it is a major complication with extremely limited benefit.

In comes WHR.  Again, it is based on Elo, but is setup to take numerous passes throughout history.  With each pass, it “learns” from what happened in surrounding events.  This makes it an excellent system for reviewing the past and in trying to determine when a competitor was really at their peak.  Whether it paints a more accurate ranking picture… who knows?

Using the four systems we have in place, let’s take a look at the following events and the rankings at the end of the story.

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Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker (2020-06-27)

21 Jun , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#3/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (25-6-0, -204) vs. [#7] Dan Hooker (20-8-0, +167)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#3P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#32WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (3-0-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#10LW] Paul Felder (17-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#11LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#114WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dustin Poirier -204 64.18%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2256.46 +184.10 69.87%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2201.67 +225.37 72.84%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2259.25 +242.58 80.16%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2130.87 +224.95 73.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 294, Dan Hooker 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#29] Mike Perry (13-6-0, -285) vs. [#149] Mickey Gall (6-2-0, +227)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#21WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#19WW] Vicente Luque (18-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#37WW] Alex Oliveira (21-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Mickey Gall (2-1-0)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#339WW] Salim Touahri (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#63WW] Diego Sanchez (30-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 2
2018-08-25: W vs. [#206MW] George Sullivan (18-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:09 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Perry -285 70.76%
Elo K170 Mike Perry 1697.47 +206.64 71.99%
Elo Modified Mike Perry 1726.18 +204.26 70.97%
Glicko-1 Mike Perry 1783.74 +249.09 80.75%
WHR Mike Perry 1682.91 +204.61 71.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 196, Mickey Gall 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#28] Brendan Allen (14-3-0, -304) vs. [#66] Kyle Daukaus (9-0-0, +248)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#49MW] Tom Breese (11-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:47 of round 1
2019-10-18: W vs. [#44MW] Kevin Holland (17-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2019-07-16: W vs. [#254MW] Aaron Jeffery (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (3-0-0)
2020-02-01: W vs. [#168MW] Nolan Norwood (12-6-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:36 of round 2
2019-09-21: W vs. [#255MW] Stephen Regman (9-5-0) via Submission (DArce Choke) in 0:50 of round 2
2019-06-25: W vs. [#261WW] Michael Lombardo (11-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brendan Allen -304 72.36%
Elo K170 Brendan Allen 1818.28 +198.59 71.25%
Elo Modified Brendan Allen 1825.72 +152.53 66.10%
Glicko-1 Brendan Allen 1901.40 +219.83 78.00%
WHR Brendan Allen 1748.31 +133.58 64.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 119, Kyle Daukaus 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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