Author Archives: Jason

WHR Career Histories of Fighters who set All-Time WHR Records

27 Jun , 2020,
Jason

One more fancy graph.  WHR histories for all fighters who set all-time highest WHR records during their career.

In other words… fighters that (by WHR standards) were “the best fighters ever” at some point when they fought.  Josh Barnett is a bit of a surprise… otherwise, names we all expect.

WHR History: Jones, Cormier, Miocic

Jun , 2020,
Jason

Three guys whose careers have been associated with one another… If Jones/Miocic ever happens, it will all come full circle.

WHR Heavyweight History: Top 10 All-Time Heavyweights

25 Jun , 2020,
Jason

While WHR’s superiority as a current ranking system is in question, its ability to view the historical scene is probably unparalleled.  To demonstrate, I took the Top 10 Heavyweights from the All-Time Rankings and dumped their WHR ratings, fight-by-fight, into a chart.

WHR… and how it really differs from Elo/Glicko

23 Jun , 2020,
Jason

If you’re a frequent visitor, you may have noticed that we’ve added four purely mathematical variants of named rating systems to the ranking pages.  Two versions of Elo, Glicko-1 and the latest being WHR.

You’ll see some basic info within our FAQ page and can Google for more.  To make a long story super short, Elo is the grandfather of most like systems.  It has been around for ages and is super simple.  Elo doesn’t care about inactivity or inconsistencies.  The process starts from day 1 and moves chronologically throughout time, every competitor starts with a starter rating, which is then modified with each result.  Glicko-1 is a very similar system to Elo, except it has the concept of “rating deviation” which allows competitors’ ratings to deviate more or less, given when they fought last.  There is also a second version of Glicko, which tosses in a factor called volatility — it is a major complication with extremely limited benefit.

In comes WHR.  Again, it is based on Elo, but is setup to take numerous passes throughout history.  With each pass, it “learns” from what happened in surrounding events.  This makes it an excellent system for reviewing the past and in trying to determine when a competitor was really at their peak.  Whether it paints a more accurate ranking picture… who knows?

Using the four systems we have in place, let’s take a look at the following events and the rankings at the end of the story.

Read More…

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker (2020-06-27)

21 Jun , 2020,
Jason

Lightweight (155)
[#3/#7DD] Dustin Poirier (25-6-0, -204) vs. [#7] Dan Hooker (20-8-0, +167)
Dustin Poirier is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Dustin Poirier (2-1-0)
2019-09-07: L vs. [#1LW/#1DD/#3P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:06 of round 3
2019-04-13: W vs. [#2FW/#6DD] Max Holloway (21-5-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
2018-07-28: W vs. [#32WW] Eddie Alvarez (30-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Dan Hooker (3-0-0)
2020-02-22: W vs. [#10LW] Paul Felder (17-5-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2019-10-05: W vs. [#11LW] Al Iaquinta (15-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#114WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:33 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Dustin Poirier -204 64.18%
Elo K170 Dustin Poirier 2256.46 +184.10 69.87%
Elo Modified Dustin Poirier 2201.67 +225.37 72.84%
Glicko-1 Dustin Poirier 2259.25 +242.58 80.16%
WHR Dustin Poirier 2130.87 +224.95 73.65%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Dustin Poirier 294, Dan Hooker 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Welterweight (170)
[#29] Mike Perry (13-6-0, -285) vs. [#149] Mickey Gall (6-2-0, +227)

Last 3 Fights: Mike Perry (1-2-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#21WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1
2019-08-10: L vs. [#19WW] Vicente Luque (18-7-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#37WW] Alex Oliveira (21-8-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Mickey Gall (2-1-0)
2019-08-03: W vs. [#339WW] Salim Touahri (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#63WW] Diego Sanchez (30-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 2
2018-08-25: W vs. [#206MW] George Sullivan (18-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:09 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mike Perry -285 70.76%
Elo K170 Mike Perry 1697.47 +206.64 71.99%
Elo Modified Mike Perry 1726.18 +204.26 70.97%
Glicko-1 Mike Perry 1783.74 +249.09 80.75%
WHR Mike Perry 1682.91 +204.61 71.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mike Perry 196, Mickey Gall 329
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#28] Brendan Allen (14-3-0, -304) vs. [#66] Kyle Daukaus (9-0-0, +248)

Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0)
2020-02-29: W vs. [#49MW] Tom Breese (11-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:47 of round 1
2019-10-18: W vs. [#44MW] Kevin Holland (17-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2
2019-07-16: W vs. [#254MW] Aaron Jeffery (7-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kyle Daukaus (3-0-0)
2020-02-01: W vs. [#168MW] Nolan Norwood (12-6-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:36 of round 2
2019-09-21: W vs. [#255MW] Stephen Regman (9-5-0) via Submission (DArce Choke) in 0:50 of round 2
2019-06-25: W vs. [#261WW] Michael Lombardo (11-2-0) via UD ()

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Brendan Allen -304 72.36%
Elo K170 Brendan Allen 1818.28 +198.59 71.25%
Elo Modified Brendan Allen 1825.72 +152.53 66.10%
Glicko-1 Brendan Allen 1901.40 +219.83 78.00%
WHR Brendan Allen 1748.31 +133.58 64.80%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 119, Kyle Daukaus 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Read More…

WHR Rating Update (Again)

17 Jun , 2020,
Jason

Notable Info

  • Bug related to draws in WHR framework is fixed (thanks to computerrank over at BoxRec).  Also went back to the original plan of lumping non-unanimous decisions in with draws (see the Glicko post for supporting info).

Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov (2020-06-20)

14 Jun , 2020,
Jason

Heavyweight (265)
[#4] Curtis Blaydes (13-2-0, -332) vs. [#10] Alexander Volkov (31-7-0, +259)
Curtis Blaydes is the All-Time #38 ranked Heavyweight fighter.
Alexander Volkov is the All-Time #41 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Curtis Blaydes (3-0-0)
2020-01-25: W vs. [#7HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-7-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:06 of round 2
2019-09-07: W vs. [#19HW+] Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6-0) via TKO (Elbow and Punch) in 2:22 of round 2
2019-03-23: W vs. [*] Justin Willis (8-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Alexander Volkov (2-1-0)
2019-11-09: W vs. [#85HW+] Greg Hardy (6-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-10-06: L vs. [#5HW+] Derrick Lewis (23-7-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:49 of round 3
2018-03-17: W vs. [#14HW+] Fabricio Werdum (23-9-1) via KO (Punches) in 1:38 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Curtis Blaydes -332 73.39%
Elo K170 Curtis Blaydes 2049.87 +89.61 60.09%
Elo Modified Curtis Blaydes 2055.19 +74.07 58.03%
Glicko-1 Curtis Blaydes 2128.70 +83.82 61.84%
WHR Curtis Blaydes 2020.68 +150.00 66.49%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Curtis Blaydes 147, Alexander Volkov 224
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#6] Josh Emmett (15-2-0, +112) vs. [#20] Shane Burgos (13-1-0, -138)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: W vs. [#34FW] Mirsad Bektic (13-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2019-03-30: W vs. [#82LW] Michael Johnson (19-16-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:14 of round 3
2018-02-24: L vs. [#17FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-18-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Shane Burgos (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#57FW] Makwan Amirkhani (15-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:32 of round 3
2019-05-04: W vs. [#24FW] Cub Swanson (26-11-0) via SD (30-27, 27-30, 29-28)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#398LW] Kurt Holobaugh (17-7-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:11 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Shane Burgos -138 55.14%
Elo K170 Josh Emmett 1954.97 +74.15 58.39%
Elo Modified Josh Emmett 1925.19 +107.02 61.50%
Glicko-1 Josh Emmett 1992.69 +139.91 69.11%
WHR Josh Emmett 1884.44 +91.81 60.34%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 343, Shane Burgos 231
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#6] Raquel Pennington (10-8-0, -139) vs. [*] Marion Reneau (9-5-1, +114)
Raquel Pennington is the All-Time #46 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Raquel Pennington (1-2-0)
2020-01-18: L vs. [#2BW/#10DD] Holly Holm (13-5-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-07-20: W vs. [#4BW] Irene Aldana (12-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-11-10: L vs. [#1BW/#8DD/#9P4P] Germaine de Randamie (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Marion Reneau (1-2-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#13BW] Yana Kunitskaya (12-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-14: L vs. [*] Cat Zingano (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#7BW] Sara McMann (12-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:40 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Raquel Pennington -139 55.44%
Elo K170 Raquel Pennington 1485.54 +141.90 65.66%
Elo Modified Raquel Pennington 1463.43 +69.96 57.60%
Glicko-1 Raquel Pennington 1434.04 +4.39 50.63%
WHR Raquel Pennington 1485.75 +86.15 59.72%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Raquel Pennington 154, Marion Reneau 469
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Raquel Pennington leads 3-1
.

Read More…