Good news — Another win for the “Safe” parlay last week! With regards to the “Underdog” parlay, I find myself constantly wanting to tweak the criteria as it has the potential to get ridiculous. It is meant to be a longshot option, but I prefer to stop short of insanely long odds. Then again, the goal with the parlays isn’t just to make money, but to also have a good hit rate when compared to the betting odds. Have any thoughts? Leave a comment!
Bouts considered must satisfy all of the criteria below:
Now for the parlays…
Once again, we hit the safe parlay last week, but the others failed. The smart parlay isn’t feeling so smart so far, and I may tighten the belt more on the requirements for that one in the near future.
This week, there is only 1 qualifying fight for the underdog and smart options (Oliveira/Tsarukyan), so going to skip those.
Post #4 in the series.. Here we go…
Light Heavyweight Championship (205) [#1/#8P4P] Alex Pereira (9-2-0, -142) vs. [#4] Jamahal Hill (13-1-0, +116) Alex Pereira is the All-Time #25 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter. Jamahal Hill is the All-Time #30 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Alex Pereira (2-1-0) 2023-11-11: W vs. [#5LHW] Jiri Prochazka (29-4-1) via TKO (Elbows) in 4:08 of round 2 2023-07-29: W vs. [#2LHW] Jan Blachowicz (29-10-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) 2023-04-08: L vs. [#1MW] Israel Adesanya (24-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Jamahal Hill (3-0-0) 2023-01-21: W vs. [*] Glover Teixeira (33-9-0) via UD (50-44, 50-44, 50-44) 2022-08-06: W vs. [#13LHW] Thiago Santos (22-12-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 2:31 of round 4 2022-02-19: W vs. [#11LHW] Johnny Walker (21-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:55 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Pereira 154, Jamahal Hill 448 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition. .
Women Strawweight Championship (115) [#1/#1DD/#1P4P] Weili Zhang (24-3-0, -413) vs. [#2/#7DD/#9P4P] Xiaonan Yan (18-3-0, +307) Weili Zhang is the All-Time #5 ranked Women’s fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Weili Zhang (3-0-0) 2023-08-19: W vs. [#4SW/#10DD] Amanda Lemos (14-3-1) via UD (50-43, 50-44, 49-45) 2022-11-12: W vs. [*] Carla Esparza (19-7-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 1:05 of round 2 2022-06-11: W vs. [*] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-5-0) via KO (Spinning Backfist) in 2:28 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Xiaonan Yan (2-1-0) 2023-05-06: W vs. [#5SW] Jessica Andrade (25-12-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:20 of round 1 2022-10-01: W vs. [#8SW] Mackenzie Dern (13-5-0) via MD (48-47, 48-47, 47-47) 2022-03-05: L vs. [#7SW] Marina Rodriguez (17-3-2) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Weili Zhang 238, Xiaonan Yan 343 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: Weili Zhang leads 2-1 .
Lightweight (155) [#3/#10P4P] Justin Gaethje (25-4-0, -190) vs. [#3FW] Max Holloway (25-7-0, +155) Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #12 ranked Lightweight fighter. Max Holloway is the All-Time #8 ranked Absolute fighter.
Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (2-1-0) 2023-07-29: W vs. [#4LW] Dustin Poirier (30-8-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 1:00 of round 2 2023-03-18: W vs. [#9LW] Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) via MD (29-28, 28-28, 29-28) 2022-05-07: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Charles Oliveira (34-9-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 3:22 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Max Holloway (2-1-0) 2023-08-26: W vs. [*] Chan Sung Jung (17-8-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:23 of round 3 2023-04-15: W vs. [#8FW] Arnold Allen (19-3-0) via UD (49-46, 49-46, 48-47) 2022-07-02: L vs. [#2FW/#8DD] Alexander Volkanovski (26-4-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Justin Gaethje 259, Max Holloway 231 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition. .
Last week was a good week. Technically, two out of three parlays hit — the “underdog” and the “safe” options. Jason Butcher, who was featured in the “underdog” parlay, withdrew from his fight. This reduced the underdog option to one fight, but it still would’ve cashed at a lesser payout.
I’m going to start tracking progress back to the start of the weekly 3-parlay posts and include that ongoing. This is post #3.
Here we go…
Middleweight (185) [#9] Brendan Allen (23-5-0, -208) vs. [#21] Chris Curtis (31-10-0, +168)
Last 3 Fights: Brendan Allen (3-0-0) 2023-11-18: W vs. [#18MW] Paul Craig (17-7-1) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 0:38 of round 3 2023-06-24: W vs. [#42MW] Bruno Silva (23-11-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:39 of round 1 2023-02-25: W vs. [#20MW] Andre Muniz (24-6-0) via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) in 4:25 of round 3
Last 3 Fights: Chris Curtis (1-1-0, 1 NC) 2024-01-20: W vs. [#38MW] Marc-Andre Barriault (17-7-0) via SD (28-29, 30-27, 30-27) 2023-06-10: NC vs. [#13MW] Nassourdine Imavov (13-4-0) 2023-04-08: L vs. [#26WW] Kelvin Gastelum (18-9-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Brendan Allen 140, Chris Curtis 77 Previous Match-up Record: Chris Curtis leads 1-0-0 Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition. .
Featherweight (145) [#41] Damon Jackson (22-6-1, +156) vs. [#82] Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0, -192)
Last 3 Fights: Damon Jackson (1-2-0) 2023-08-05: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) 2023-01-14: L vs. [#16FW] Dan Ige (18-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:13 of round 2 2022-09-17: W vs. [#76FW] Pat Sabatini (18-5-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 1:09 of round 1
Last 3 Fights: Alexander Hernandez (1-2-0) 2023-10-07: L vs. [#35FW] Bill Algeo (18-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) 2023-02-18: W vs. [#54LW] Jim Miller (37-17-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27) 2022-12-10: L vs. [#38FW] Billy Quarantillo (18-6-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 4:30 of round 2
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Damon Jackson 245, Alexander Hernandez 182 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition. .
Featherweight (145) [#46] Jose Mariscal (15-6-0, +135) vs. [#110] Morgan Charriere (19-9-1, -166)
Last 3 Fights: Jose Mariscal (3-0-0) 2023-09-09: W vs. [#144FW] Jack Jenkins (12-3-0) via TKO (Arm Injury) in 3:19 of round 2 2023-06-24: W vs. [#159LW] Trevor Peek (9-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) 2023-02-17: W vs. [#118FW] Guilherme Faria de Souza (19-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:02 of round 2
Last 3 Fights: Morgan Charriere (3-0-0) 2023-09-02: W vs. [#534FW] Manolo Zecchini (11-4-0) via KO (Body Kick and Punches) in 3:51 of round 1 2023-07-21: W vs. [#332LW] Diego Silva (16-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:13 of round 3 2023-04-29: W vs. [#924FW] Pedro Souza (18-5-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jose Mariscal 210, Morgan Charriere 217 Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups. Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition. .
This post covers the rest of March. Hopefully we’ll hit something. It is a bit of a dead week, so I’m bending a bit and including some lesser organizations in the parlays.
In this post, I’m going to cover this week’s fights and will now feature three different parlays:
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