Fight Matrix Program – UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley (2020-09-19)

14 Sep , 2020,
Jason

Welterweight (170)
[#4] Colby Covington (15-2-0, -347) vs. [#5] Tyron Woodley (19-5-1, +268)
Colby Covington is the All-Time #18 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Tyron Woodley is the All-Time #3 ranked Welterweight and #26 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (2-1-0)
2019-12-14: L vs. [#1WW/#3DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (17-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:10 of round 5
2019-08-03: W vs. [#37WW] Robbie Lawler (28-15-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#11WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-13-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Tyron Woodley (1-2-0)
2020-05-30: L vs. [#3WW] Gilbert Burns (19-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#1WW/#3DD/#5P4P] Kamaru Usman (17-1-0) via UD (50-44, 50-45, 50-44)
2018-09-08: W vs. [#9MW] Darren Till (18-3-1) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 4:19 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Colby Covington -347 74.07%
Elo K170 Colby Covington 2177.71 +42.61 54.85%
Elo Modified Colby Covington 2124.19 +48.50 55.29%
Glicko-1 Tyron Woodley 2171.37 +28.05 54.03%
WHR Colby Covington 1953.34 +55.59 56.32%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Colby Covington 280, Tyron Woodley 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 3 win(s) against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#24] Donald Cerrone (36-15-0, +135) vs. [#52] Niko Price (14-4-0, -164)
Donald Cerrone is the All-Time #43 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Donald Cerrone (0-3-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#16WW] Anthony Pettis (23-10-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2020-01-18: L vs. [*] Conor McGregor (22-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:40 of round 1
2019-09-14: L vs. [#2LW/#6DD/#9P4P] Justin Gaethje (22-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:18 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Niko Price (1-2-0)
2020-05-09: L vs. [#15WW] Vicente Luque (19-7-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage in 3:37 of round 3
2019-10-12: W vs. [#117WW] James Vick (13-5-0) via KO (Upkick) in 1:44 of round 1
2019-07-27: L vs. [#18WW] Geoff Neal (13-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Niko Price -164 59.34%
Elo K170 Donald Cerrone 1840.36 +152.23 66.72%
Elo Modified Donald Cerrone 1813.55 +115.76 62.41%
Glicko-1 Donald Cerrone 1868.25 +138.24 68.91%
WHR Donald Cerrone 1793.39 +108.28 62.12%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Donald Cerrone 133, Niko Price 133
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#38] Gerald Meerschaert (31-13-0, +400) vs. [#70] Khamzat Chimaev (8-0-0, -554)

Last 3 Fights: Gerald Meerschaert (1-2-0)
2020-06-06: L vs. [#16MW] Ian Heinisch (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 1
2020-03-07: W vs. [#78MW] Deron Winn (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:13 of round 3
2019-10-12: L vs. [#31MW] Eryk Anders (13-5-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Khamzat Chimaev (3-0-0)
2020-07-25: W vs. [#228WW] Rhys McKee (10-3-1) via TKO (Punches) in 3:09 of round 1
2020-07-15: W vs. [#168MW] John Phillips (22-10-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:12 of round 2
2019-10-04: W vs. [#304MW] Mzwandile Hlongwa (4-2-0) via SUB in of round 2

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Khamzat Chimaev -554 80.89%
Elo K170 Khamzat Chimaev 1658.47 +92.58 60.42%
Elo Modified Khamzat Chimaev 1720.24 +42.30 54.62%
Glicko-1 Khamzat Chimaev 1751.04 +8.38 51.21%
WHR Khamzat Chimaev 1669.49 +6.06 50.69%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gerald Meerschaert 105, Khamzat Chimaev 56
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#18] Ryan Spann (18-5-0, +106) vs. [#32] Johnny Walker (17-5-0, -131)

Last 3 Fights: Ryan Spann (3-0-0)
2020-05-09: W vs. [#37LHW] Sam Alvey (33-14-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-10-12: W vs. [#42LHW] Devin Clark (12-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:01 of round 2
2019-05-11: W vs. [#29LHW] Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-10-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Johnny Walker (1-2-0)
2020-03-14: L vs. [#15LHW] Nikita Krylov (26-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-11-02: L vs. [#12LHW] Corey Anderson (13-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:07 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#23LHW] Misha Cirkunov (15-5-0) via TKO (Flying Knee and Punches) in 0:38 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Johnny Walker -131 53.88%
Elo K170 Ryan Spann 1847.20 +199.36 71.32%
Elo Modified Ryan Spann 1821.04 +141.80 65.04%
Glicko-1 Ryan Spann 1847.05 +112.54 65.65%
WHR Ryan Spann 1727.77 +72.07 58.16%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ryan Spann 133, Johnny Walker 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#19] Randa Markos (10-8-1, +158) vs. [#28] Mackenzie Dern (8-1-0, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Randa Markos (1-2-0)
2020-03-14: L vs. [#10SW] Amanda Ribas (10-1-0) via UD (30-26, 30-25, 30-25)
2019-10-26: W vs. [#33SW] Ashley Yoder (7-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2019-07-06: L vs. [#5SW] Claudia Gadelha (18-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Mackenzie Dern (2-1-0)
2020-05-30: W vs. [#72SW] Hannah Cifers (10-7-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 2:36 of round 1
2019-10-12: L vs. [#10SW] Amanda Ribas (10-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#66FLY] Amanda Bobby Cooper (4-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:27 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mackenzie Dern -191 62.87%
Elo K170 Mackenzie Dern 1446.70 +56.53 56.42%
Elo Modified Mackenzie Dern 1465.83 +83.70 59.06%
Glicko-1 Mackenzie Dern 1441.89 +84.88 61.98%
WHR Mackenzie Dern 1383.66 +4.42 50.51%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Randa Markos 189, Mackenzie Dern 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
.

Middleweight (185)
[#42] Kevin Holland (18-5-0, -230) vs. [#50] Darren Stewart (12-5-0, +184)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#139MW] Joaquin Buckley (10-3-0) via TKO (Punch) in 0:43 of round 3
2020-05-16: W vs. [#120MW] Anthony Hernandez (7-2-0) via TKO (Knees and Punches) in 1:39 of round 1
2019-10-18: L vs. [#25MW] Brendan Allen (15-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:38 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Darren Stewart (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#157MW] Maki Pitolo (13-7-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:41 of round 1
2020-03-20: L vs. [#44MW] Bartosz Fabinski (15-4-0) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#78MW] Deron Winn (6-2-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Kevin Holland -230 66.43%
Elo K170 Kevin Holland 1753.82 +137.79 65.24%
Elo Modified Kevin Holland 1756.90 +126.03 63.45%
Glicko-1 Kevin Holland 1795.63 +150.75 70.43%
WHR Kevin Holland 1701.67 +189.55 70.39%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Holland 42, Darren Stewart 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#28] Mirsad Bektic (13-3-0, -522) vs. [#233] Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (13-1-0, +389)

Last 3 Fights: Mirsad Bektic (1-2-0)
2020-02-08: L vs. [#10FW] Dan Ige (14-3-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2019-07-13: L vs. [#5FW] Josh Emmett (16-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:25 of round 1
2018-06-09: W vs. [*] Ricardo Lamas (20-8-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (2-1-0)
2019-11-16: L vs. [#131FW] Ricardo Ramos (14-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 3:57 of round 1
2019-08-10: W vs. [#178LW] Humberto Bandenay (18-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-18: W vs. [NA] Stevens Diogo (0-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:37 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mirsad Bektic -522 80.40%
Elo K170 Mirsad Bektic 1718.63 +205.95 71.93%
Elo Modified Mirsad Bektic 1748.27 +222.77 72.62%
Glicko-1 Mirsad Bektic 1773.03 +216.25 77.64%
WHR Mirsad Bektic 1666.14 +173.24 68.81%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mirsad Bektic 224, Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 308
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Flyweight (125)
[#38] Mayra Bueno Silva (5-1-0, -243) vs. [#61] Mara Romero Borella (12-8-0, +194)

Last 3 Fights: Mayra Bueno Silva (2-1-0)
2020-03-14: L vs. [#15FLY] Maryna Moroz (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-09-22: W vs. [#14FLY] Gillian Robertson (8-4-0) via Submission (Ambar) in 4:55 of round 1
2018-08-10: W vs. [#33BW] Mayana Souza dos Santos (8-1-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:02 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Mara Romero Borella (0-3-0)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#27FLY] Cortney Casey (9-8-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:36 of round 1
2020-02-15: L vs. [#33FLY] Montana De La Rosa (10-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-08-03: L vs. [#7FLY] Lauren Murphy (13-4-0) via TKO (Knee and Elbows) in 1:46 of round 3

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Mayra Bueno Silva -243 67.56%
Elo K170 Mayra Bueno Silva 1384.44 +188.44 70.28%
Elo Modified Mayra Bueno Silva 1404.55 +203.89 70.94%
Glicko-1 Mayra Bueno Silva 1364.65 +211.16 77.12%
WHR Mayra Bueno Silva 1392.96 +251.49 75.93%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mayra Bueno Silva 189, Mara Romero Borella 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#23] Jordan Espinosa (15-7-0, -104) vs. [#42] David Dvorak (18-3-0, -120)

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Espinosa (1-2-0)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#199BW] Mark De La Rosa (11-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2020-01-25: L vs. [#4FLY] Alex Perez (24-5-0) via Technical Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:33 of round 1
2019-08-03: L vs. [#12FLY] Matt Schnell (14-5-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 1:23 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: David Dvorak (3-0-0)
2020-03-14: W vs. [#116FLY] Bruno Silva (10-5-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#321FLY] Arsen Taigibov (15-3-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:02 of round 2
2019-04-06: W vs. [#772FLY] Igor Goncharov (5-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:10 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds David Dvorak -120 51.69%
Elo K170 David Dvorak 1640.06 +37.77 54.30%
Elo Modified David Dvorak 1637.05 +60.35 56.57%
Glicko-1 David Dvorak 1722.74 +168.75 72.54%
WHR David Dvorak 1630.18 +148.12 66.30%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jordan Espinosa 98, David Dvorak 189
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Women Bantamweight (135)
[#19] Sarah Alpar (9-4-0, +167) vs. [#41] Jessica-Rose Clark (9-6-0, -203)

Last 3 Fights: Sarah Alpar (3-0-0)
2019-08-13: W vs. [#45BW] Shanna Young (7-3-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:55 of round 2
2018-11-30: W vs. [#30BW] Joselyne Edwards Laboriel (9-2-0) via SD (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
2017-11-11: W vs. [*] Pamela Boveda Aguirre (5-3-0) via TKO in of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jessica-Rose Clark (1-2-0)
2019-11-09: L vs. [#10BW] Pannie Kianzad (13-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: L vs. [#8FLY] Jessica Eye (15-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-01-14: W vs. [#72FLY] Paige VanZant (8-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Jessica-Rose Clark -203 64.14%
Elo K170 Sarah Alpar 1413.73 +184.12 69.87%
Elo Modified Sarah Alpar 1367.02 +115.85 62.41%
Glicko-1 Sarah Alpar 1350.01 +135.92 68.62%
WHR Sarah Alpar 1322.34 +143.64 65.84%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sarah Alpar 403, Jessica-Rose Clark 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Jessica-Rose Clark leads 1-0
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#195] Journey Newson (10-2-0, -137) vs. [#459] Randy Costa (5-1-0, +112)

Last 3 Fights: Journey Newson (1-1-0, 1 NC)
2020-02-08: NC vs. [#190BW] Domingo Pilarte (8-2-0)
2019-06-29: L vs. [#131FW] Ricardo Ramos (14-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-05-10: W vs. [*] Soslan Abanokov (5-4-1) via TKO in 1:20 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Randy Costa (2-1-0)
2019-10-18: W vs. [#551LW] Boston Salmon (7-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:15 of round 1
2019-04-13: L vs. [#192FW] Brandon Davis (10-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:12 of round 2
2019-01-26: W vs. [NA] Rob Fuller (1-9-0) via TKO in 0:42 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Journey Newson -137 55.06%
Elo K170 Journey Newson 1448.18 +179.21 69.40%
Elo Modified Journey Newson 1467.71 +161.76 67.00%
Glicko-1 Journey Newson 1460.09 +151.28 70.49%
WHR Journey Newson 1405.33 +176.47 69.13%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Journey Newson 224, Randy Costa 337
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Bantamweight (135)
[#56] Andre Ewell (16-6-0, -184) vs. [#127] Irwin Rivera (10-5-0, +152)

Last 3 Fights: Andre Ewell (2-1-0)
2020-02-08: W vs. [#125FW] Jonathan Martinez (12-3-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2019-10-12: L vs. [#18BW] Marlon Vera (17-6-1) via TKO (Elbow and Punches) in 3:17 of round 3
2019-06-22: W vs. [#164BW] Anderson dos Santos (20-8-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)

Last 3 Fights: Irwin Rivera (2-1-0)
2020-08-08: W vs. [#194BW] Ali AlQaisi (8-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2020-05-16: L vs. [#79FW] Giga Chikadze (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
2019-12-20: W vs. [#322BW] Danny Sabatello (8-1-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 4:26 of round 4

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Betting Odds Andre Ewell -184 62.01%
Elo K170 Andre Ewell 1616.58 +162.65 67.77%
Elo Modified Andre Ewell 1555.23 +162.35 67.06%
Glicko-1 Andre Ewell 1553.90 +145.10 69.74%
WHR Andre Ewell 1438.93 +105.51 61.82%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Andre Ewell 224, Irwin Rivera 42
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Featherweight (145)
[#84] T.J. Laramie (12-3-0) vs. [#133] Darrick Minner (24-11-0)

Last 3 Fights: T.J. Laramie (3-0-0)
2020-08-11: W vs. [#217FW] Daniel Swain (20-10-1) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 5:00 of round 1
2019-12-06: W vs. [#205FW] Andrew Cruz (6-4-0) via UD ()
2019-09-28: W vs. [#650FW] Paris Stanford (5-3-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Darrick Minner (2-1-0)
2020-02-29: L vs. [#36FW] Grant Dawson (16-1-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:38 of round 2
2019-12-06: W vs. [#690FW] Charlie DuBray (15-14-0) via SUB in 1:33 of round 1
2019-10-19: W vs. [#328FW] Terrance McKinney (7-3-0) via SUB in 0:57 of round 1

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 T.J. Laramie 1628.37 +179.38 69.42%
Elo Modified T.J. Laramie 1660.19 +174.49 68.22%
Glicko-1 T.J. Laramie 1690.85 +186.14 74.49%
WHR T.J. Laramie 1570.45 +139.78 65.45%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: T.J. Laramie 39, Darrick Minner 203
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
.

Flyweight (125)
[#47] Jerome Rivera (10-2-0) vs. [#57] Tyson Nam (19-11-1)

Last 3 Fights: Jerome Rivera (3-0-0)
2020-08-04: W vs. [#136FLY] Luis Ronaldo Rodriguez (11-2-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2020-01-17: W vs. [#255FLY] Kendrick Latchman (8-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:12 of round 2
2019-02-23: W vs. [*] Gene Perez (7-10-0) via SUB in 1:07 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Tyson Nam (1-2-0)
2020-06-13: W vs. [#947BW] Zarrukh Adashev (3-2-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:32 of round 1
2020-02-22: L vs. [#13FLY] Kai Kara-France (21-8-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-09-21: L vs. [#27BW] Sergio Pettis (20-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

System Favorite Rating Rating Diff Win %
Elo K170 Jerome Rivera 1441.82 +8.86 51.01%
Elo Modified Jerome Rivera 1471.80 +22.27 52.44%
Glicko-1 Jerome Rivera 1488.15 +5.76 50.83%
WHR Jerome Rivera 1475.88 +37.69 54.29%

Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jerome Rivera 46, Tyson Nam 98
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Modified rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko/WHR Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Colby Covington
Highest Stored DD Rating: Colby Covington
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2020-9-13