Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 7: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik (12-07-2019)

Heavyweight (265)
[#7] Alistair Overeem (45-17-0, -126) vs. [#30] Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-0-0, +101)
Alistair Overeem is the All-Time #14 ranked Heavyweight and #47 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Alistair Overeem (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: W vs. [#17HW+] Alexey Oleynik (59-13-1) via TKO (Punches) in 4:45 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#39HW+] Sergei Pavlovich (14-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:21 of round 1
2018-06-09: L vs. [#6HW+] Curtis Blaydes (12-2-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 2:56 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Jairzinho Rozenstruik (3-0-0)
2019-11-02: W vs. [#45HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via KO (Punch) in 0:29 of round 1
2019-06-22: W vs. [#146HW+] Allen Crowder (10-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 0:09 of round 1
2019-02-02: W vs. [#72HW+] Junior Albini (14-6-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 0:54 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alistair Overeem – Win%: 52.84
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alistair Overeem (1983.34) [+318.07] – Win%: 81.05
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alistair Overeem (1992.91) [+308.45] – Win%: 79.42
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Alistair Overeem (1963.54) [+264.11] – Win%: 87.88
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alistair Overeem 231, Jairzinho Rozenstruik 35
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#10] Cynthia Calvillo (8-1-0, -102) vs. [#12] Marina Rodriguez (12-0-1, -122)

Last 3 Fights: Cynthia Calvillo (2-1-0)
2019-02-17: W vs. [#20SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-11-17: W vs. [#36FLY] Poliana Botelho (8-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:48 of round 1
2017-12-30: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (2-0-1)
2019-08-10: W vs. [#19SW] Tecia Torres (10-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-03-30: W vs. [#38SW] Jessica Aguilar (20-8-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 29-26)
2018-09-22: D vs. [#15SW] Randa Markos (10-7-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marina Rodriguez – Win%: 52.11
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marina Rodriguez (1624.83) [+25.56] – Win%: 52.92
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cynthia Calvillo (1658.27) [+32.65] – Win%: 53.57
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Marina Rodriguez (1625.53) [+4.57] – Win%: 50.86
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cynthia Calvillo 293, Marina Rodriguez 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Heavyweight (265)
[#29] Stefan Struve (29-11-0, +115) vs. [#71] Ben Rothwell (36-12-0, -141)
Ben Rothwell is the All-Time #47 ranked Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Stefan Struve (1-2-0)
2019-02-23: W vs. [#59HW+] Marcos Rogerio de Lima (16-6-1) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:21 of round 2
2018-07-22: L vs. [#32HW+] Marcin Tybura (17-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#45HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ben Rothwell (0-3-0)
2019-07-20: L vs. [#45HW+] Andrei Arlovski (28-19-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#11HW+] Blagoy Ivanov (18-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2016-04-10: L vs. [#4HW+] Junior dos Santos (21-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ben Rothwell – Win%: 55.71
Elo Favorite (Standard): Stefan Struve (1656.95) [+53.61] – Win%: 56.09
Elo Favorite (Modified): Stefan Struve (1682.55) [+8.52] – Win%: 50.93
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Stefan Struve (1654.50) [+8.03] – Win%: 51.57
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Stefan Struve 287, Ben Rothwell 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Ben Rothwell leads 2-0
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Women Bantamweight (135)
[#7] Aspen Ladd (8-1-0, -156) vs. [#9] Yana Kunitskaya (12-4-0, +128)

Last 3 Fights: Aspen Ladd (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: L vs. [#2BW/#6DD/#6P4P] Germaine de Randamie (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:16 of round 1
2019-05-18: W vs. [#20BW] Sijara Eubanks (4-4-0) via UD (29-27, 30-26, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#26BW] Tonya Evinger (19-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Yana Kunitskaya (2-1-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#13BW] Marion Reneau (9-5-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#8BW] Lina Lansberg (10-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-03-03: L vs. [#1FW/#5DD/#4P4P] Cristiane Justino (21-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:25 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Aspen Ladd – Win%: 58.14
Elo Favorite (Standard): Aspen Ladd (1556.28) [+17.59] – Win%: 52.01
Elo Favorite (Modified): Aspen Ladd (1608.49) [+55.98] – Win%: 56.09
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Aspen Ladd (1565.88) [+11.19] – Win%: 52.13
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Aspen Ladd 147, Yana Kunitskaya 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Aspen Ladd leads 2-1
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Bantamweight (135)
[#16] Cody Stamann (18-2-0, +158) vs. [#26] Yadong Song (15-3-0, -191)

Last 3 Fights: Cody Stamann (2-1-0)
2019-03-02: W vs. [#38BW] Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#2BW] Aljamain Sterling (18-3-0) via Submission (Kneebar) in 3:42 of round 2
2018-03-03: W vs. [#45BW] Bryan Caraway (22-9-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Yadong Song (3-0-0)
2019-07-06: W vs. [#38BW] Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) via KO (Punch) in 2:04 of round 1
2018-11-24: W vs. [#297BW] Vince Morales (9-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-23: W vs. [*] Felipe Arantes (18-10-1) via KO (Elbow) in 4:59 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Yadong Song – Win%: 62.87
Elo Favorite (Standard): Cody Stamann (1884.63) [+189.57] – Win%: 70.39
Elo Favorite (Modified): Cody Stamann (1819.44) [+120.06] – Win%: 62.85
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Cody Stamann (1801.90) [+62.14] – Win%: 61.27
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Cody Stamann 280, Yadong Song 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#17] Rob Font (16-4-0, -141) vs. [#24] Ricky Simon (16-2-0, +116)

Last 3 Fights: Rob Font (2-1-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#5FLY] Sergio Pettis (18-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-07: L vs. [#13BW] Raphael Assuncao (27-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-01-20: W vs. [*] Thomas Almeida (21-3-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 2:24 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ricky Simon (2-1-0)
2019-07-13: L vs. [#10BW] Urijah Faber (35-10-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 1
2019-02-09: W vs. [#33BW] Rani Yahya (26-10-0) via UD (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#18BW] Montel Jackson (8-1-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Rob Font – Win%: 55.82
Elo Favorite (Standard): Rob Font (1817.75) [+69.00] – Win%: 57.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Rob Font (1790.10) [+59.77] – Win%: 56.50
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Rob Font (1808.74) [+74.14] – Win%: 63.45
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Rob Font 357, Ricky Simon 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#76] Thiago Alves (23-14-0, +201) vs. [#77] Tim Means (28-11-1, -250)
Thiago Alves is the All-Time #18 ranked Welterweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Thiago Alves (1-2-0)
2019-05-11: L vs. [#86WW] Laureano Staropoli (9-2-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#69WW] Max Griffin (15-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-09-15: L vs. [#50WW] Alexey Kunchenko (20-1-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Tim Means (1-2-0)
2019-03-09: L vs. [#49WW] Niko Price (14-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:50 of round 1
2018-11-30: W vs. [#152WW] Ricky Rainey (13-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:18 of round 1
2018-02-03: L vs. [#74WW] Sergio Moraes (14-6-1) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Tim Means – Win%: 68.25
Elo Favorite (Standard): Thiago Alves (1607.41) [+7.86] – Win%: 50.90
Elo Favorite (Modified): Tim Means (1693.27) [+120.15] – Win%: 62.85
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Tim Means (1660.54) [+91.84] – Win%: 66.92
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Thiago Alves 210, Tim Means 273
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#77] Billy Quarantillo (12-2-0) vs. [#209] Jacob Kilburn (8-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Billy Quarantillo (3-0-0)
2019-07-23: W vs. [#249FW] Kamuela Kirk (9-3-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:22 of round 3
2019-02-23: W vs. [#378FW] Adrian Vilaca (8-3-0) via KO in 4:32 of round 2
2017-08-19: W vs. [*] Eric Reynolds (18-12-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Jacob Kilburn (2-1-0)
2019-10-10: W vs. [#781FW] Javanis Ross (4-3-0) via TKO in 1:34 of round 1
2019-08-02: W vs. [#475FW] Deivison Francisco Ribeir (27-11-0) via TKO in 0:10 of round 2
2018-08-07: L vs. [#102FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via Submission (Brabo Choke) in 1:02 of round 2

Elo Favorite (Standard): Billy Quarantillo (1625.71) [+176.85] – Win%: 69.17
Elo Favorite (Modified): Billy Quarantillo (1645.61) [+179.81] – Win%: 68.72
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Billy Quarantillo (1628.89) [+164.83] – Win%: 78.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Billy Quarantillo 137, Jacob Kilburn 58
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#84] Bryce Mitchell (11-0-0, -113) vs. [#177] Matt Sayles (8-2-0, -111)

Last 3 Fights: Bryce Mitchell (3-0-0)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#102FW] Bobby Moffett (14-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-06: W vs. [#152FW] Tyler Diamond (11-1-0) via MD (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
2017-06-17: W vs. [#206FW] Jose Mariscal (10-4-0) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Matt Sayles (2-1-0)
2019-05-04: W vs. [#185FW] Kyle Nelson (13-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 3:16 of round 3
2018-08-04: L vs. [#115FW] Sheymon Moraes (11-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-06-19: W vs. [*] Yazan Hajeh (6-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:57 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Bryce Mitchell – Win%: 50.20
Elo Favorite (Standard): Bryce Mitchell (1681.00) [+165.35] – Win%: 68.04
Elo Favorite (Modified): Bryce Mitchell (1685.25) [+138.37] – Win%: 64.70
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Bryce Mitchell (1645.48) [+76.53] – Win%: 64.00
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Bryce Mitchell 259, Matt Sayles 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#312] Joe Solecki (8-2-0, -318) vs. [#519] Matt Wiman (16-8-0, +247)

Last 3 Fights: Joe Solecki (3-0-0)
2019-07-09: W vs. [#646MW] James Wallace (8-3-0) via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:49 of round 1
2019-03-02: W vs. [#466LW] Jacob Bohn (9-7-0) via UD ()
2018-11-16: W vs. [#1065LW] Gilbert Patrocinio (8-3-0) via SUB in 2:37 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Matt Wiman (1-2-0)
2019-06-22: L vs. [#160LW] Luis Pena (7-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:14 of round 3
2014-11-22: W vs. [*] Isaac Vallie-Flagg (16-7-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2013-01-26: L vs. [*] T.J. Grant (21-5-0) via KO (Elbows and Punches) in 4:51 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Joe Solecki – Win%: 72.52
Elo Favorite (Standard): Matt Wiman (1632.45) [+193.79] – Win%: 70.79
Elo Favorite (Modified): Matt Wiman (1644.11) [+186.17] – Win%: 69.31
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Matt Wiman (1616.44) [+146.29] – Win%: 75.36
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joe Solecki 151, Matt Wiman 168
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#24] Virna Jandiroba (14-1-0) vs. [#33] Mallory Martin (6-2-0)

Last 3 Fights: Virna Jandiroba (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: L vs. [#6SW] Carla Esparza (15-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-09-01: W vs. [#107FLY] Janaisa Morandin (10-3-0) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) in 2:23 of round 2
2018-03-24: W vs. [#24FLY] Mizuki Inoue (15-4-0) via SD (49-46, 46-49, 49-46)

Last 3 Fights: Mallory Martin (3-0-0)
2019-11-01: W vs. [#174SW] Cynthia Arceo (5-2-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2019-08-20: W vs. [#114SW] Micol DiSegni (7-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-09-01: W vs. [*] Ashley Nichols (3-3-0) via TKO (Elbows) in 1:05 of round 3

Elo Favorite (Standard): Virna Jandiroba (1523.02) [+157.68] – Win%: 67.27
Elo Favorite (Modified): Virna Jandiroba (1519.58) [+137.06] – Win%: 64.57
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Virna Jandiroba (1501.23) [+114.72] – Win%: 70.88
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Virna Jandiroba 224, Mallory Martin 36
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#56] Trevor Smith (15-9-0, +257) vs. [#64] Makhmud Muradov (23-6-0, -331)

Last 3 Fights: Trevor Smith (1-2-0)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#38MW] Zak Cummings (23-7-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-05-27: L vs. [#20MW] Elias Theodorou (16-3-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-05-28: W vs. [#78HW+] Chris Camozzi (25-14-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Makhmud Muradov (3-0-0)
2019-09-28: W vs. [#97MW] Alessio Di Chirico (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2019-07-27: W vs. [#473WW] Wendell de Oliveira Marqu (31-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:56 of round 2
2019-06-08: W vs. [#325MW] Alberto Emiliano Pereira (13-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:34 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Makhmud Muradov – Win%: 73.27
Elo Favorite (Standard): Makhmud Muradov (1773.53) [+208.71] – Win%: 72.18
Elo Favorite (Modified): Makhmud Muradov (1781.59) [+165.06] – Win%: 67.32
Glicko-1 Favorite (Adj): Makhmud Muradov (1766.31) [+171.77] – Win%: 78.77
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Trevor Smith 357, Makhmud Muradov 70
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo/Glicko Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.
– The Glicko-1 scores in this post are adjusted to better match the 1000 Elo starter rating for an easier comparison.
 



Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Alistair Overeem
Highest Stored DD Rating: Alistair Overeem
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Alistair Overeem vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Alistair Overeem vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2019-12-2