Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 5: Covington vs. Lawler (08-03-2019)

29 Jul , 2019,
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Welterweight (170)
[#4] Colby Covington (14-1-0, -230) vs. [#17] Robbie Lawler (28-13-0, +184)
Colby Covington is the All-Time #23 ranked Welterweight fighter.
Robbie Lawler is the All-Time #4 ranked Welterweight and #24 ranked Absolute fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Colby Covington (3-0-0)
2018-06-09: W vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via UD (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
2017-10-28: W vs. [#13WW] Demian Maia (27-9-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
2017-06-17: W vs. [*] Dong Hyun Kim (22-4-1) via UD (30-26, 30-27, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Robbie Lawler (1-2-0)
2019-03-02: L vs. [#16WW] Ben Askren (19-1-0) via Technical Submission (Bulldog Choke) in 3:20 of round 1
2017-12-16: L vs. [#7WW] Rafael dos Anjos (29-12-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-07-29: W vs. [#4LW] Donald Cerrone (36-12-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Colby Covington – Win%: 66.43
Elo Favorite (Standard): Colby Covington (2189.89) [+152.92] – Win%: 66.79
Elo Favorite (Modified): Colby Covington (2144.16) [+164.70] – Win%: 67.28
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Colby Covington 420, Robbie Lawler 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Colby Covington leads 1-0
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#11] Volkan Oezdemir (15-4-0, -144) vs. [#13] Ilir Latifi (14-6-0, +116)
Volkan Oezdemir is the All-Time #38 ranked Light Heavyweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Volkan Oezdemir (0-3-0)
2019-03-16: L vs. [#9LHW] Dominick Reyes (11-0-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-10-27: L vs. [#3LHW] Anthony Smith (32-14-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:26 of round 3
2018-01-20: L vs. [#1HW+/#3DD/#3P4P] Daniel Cormier (22-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:00 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Ilir Latifi (2-1-0)
2018-12-29: L vs. [#7LHW] Corey Anderson (12-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-02-24: W vs. [#27LHW] Ovince St. Preux (23-13-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 3:48 of round 1
2017-09-09: W vs. [#51LHW] Tyson Pedro (7-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Volkan Oezdemir – Win%: 56.03
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ilir Latifi (1797.74) [+110.24] – Win%: 62.33
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ilir Latifi (1820.19) [+92.46] – Win%: 59.98
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Volkan Oezdemir 140, Ilir Latifi 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#36] Jim Miller (30-13-0, -180) vs. [#43] Clay Guida (35-18-0, +149)
Jim Miller is the All-Time #39 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Clay Guida is the All-Time #29 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Jim Miller (2-1-0)
2019-04-27: W vs. [#401LW] Jason Gonzalez (11-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:12 of round 1
2018-12-15: L vs. [#6LW] Charles Oliveira (27-8-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:15 of round 1
2018-09-08: W vs. [#111LW] Alex White (14-5-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 1:29 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Clay Guida (2-1-0)
2019-05-11: W vs. [#376LW] B.J. Penn (16-14-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
2018-06-09: L vs. [#6LW] Charles Oliveira (27-8-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 2:18 of round 1
2017-11-11: W vs. [*] Joe Lauzon (27-15-0) via TKO (Punches and Elbows) in 1:07 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jim Miller – Win%: 61.55
Elo Favorite (Standard): Clay Guida (1755.08) [+88.05] – Win%: 59.92
Elo Favorite (Modified): Clay Guida (1751.18) [+89.89] – Win%: 59.71
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jim Miller 98, Clay Guida 84
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 6 win(s) against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#82] Joaquim Silva (11-1-0, +185) vs. [#102] Nasrat Haqparast (10-2-0, -231)

Last 3 Fights: Joaquim Silva (2-1-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#106LW] Jared Gordon (15-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:39 of round 3
2018-01-27: L vs. [#77LW] Vinc Pichel (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-05-28: W vs. [*] Reza Madadi (14-6-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Nasrat Haqparast (2-1-0)
2018-10-27: W vs. [#209LW] Thibault Gouti (12-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-27, 30-26)
2018-07-22: W vs. [#104LW] Marc Diakiese (13-3-0) via UD (30-27, 30-26, 30-27)
2017-10-21: L vs. [#22LW] Marcin Held (26-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Nasrat Haqparast – Win%: 66.54
Elo Favorite (Standard): Joaquim Silva (1670.50) [+128.51] – Win%: 64.27
Elo Favorite (Modified): Joaquim Silva (1631.86) [+66.54] – Win%: 57.23
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Joaquim Silva 231, Nasrat Haqparast 280
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Flyweight (125)
[#11] Jordan Espinosa (14-5-0, -144) vs. [#15] Matt Schnell (13-4-0, +118)

Last 3 Fights: Jordan Espinosa (3-0-0)
2019-03-23: W vs. [#31FLY] Eric Shelton (12-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-10: W vs. [#45FLY] Riley Dutro (11-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:58 of round 3
2018-03-03: W vs. [#244BW] C.J. Hamilton (14-7-0) via SD ()

Last 3 Fights: Matt Schnell (3-0-0)
2019-03-09: W vs. [#168BW] Louis Smolka (15-6-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 3:18 of round 1
2018-06-23: W vs. [#88FLY] Naoki Inoue (11-2-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-10-07: W vs. [#189BW] Marco Beltran (10-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jordan Espinosa – Win%: 56.26
Elo Favorite (Standard): Jordan Espinosa (1686.51) [+42.38] – Win%: 54.82
Elo Favorite (Modified): Jordan Espinosa (1630.78) [+45.98] – Win%: 55.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Jordan Espinosa 133, Matt Schnell 147
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#19] Mara Romero Borella (12-5-0, -168) vs. [#45] Lauren Murphy (10-4-0, +139)

Last 3 Fights: Mara Romero Borella (2-1-0)
2019-02-02: W vs. [#33FLY] Taila Santos (15-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-01-27: L vs. [#3FLY/#9P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-10-07: W vs. [#76FLY] Kalindra Faria (18-8-1) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:54 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Lauren Murphy (1-2-0)
2018-06-01: L vs. [#17BW] Sijara Eubanks (4-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
2017-12-01: W vs. [#53FLY] Barb Honchak (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2016-07-13: L vs. [#3FLY/#9P4P] Katlyn Chookagian (12-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Mara Romero Borella – Win%: 59.97
Elo Favorite (Standard): Mara Romero Borella (1485.38) [+233.00] – Win%: 74.36
Elo Favorite (Modified): Mara Romero Borella (1409.76) [+99.63] – Win%: 60.73
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Mara Romero Borella 182, Lauren Murphy 428
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#22] Antonina Shevchenko (7-1-0, -174) vs. [#44] Lucie Pudilova (8-4-0, +144)

Last 3 Fights: Antonina Shevchenko (2-1-0)
2019-04-20: L vs. [#16FLY] Roxanne Modafferi (23-16-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#34BW] Ji Yeon Kim (8-2-2) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-26: W vs. [#174FLY] Jaimelene Nievera (7-5-0) via TKO (Knees) in 3:22 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Lucie Pudilova (1-2-0)
2019-02-23: L vs. [#2FLY] Liz Carmouche (13-6-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#10BW] Irene Aldana (10-5-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2018-02-18: W vs. [#31BW] Sarah Moras (5-5-0) via UD (29-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Antonina Shevchenko – Win%: 60.77
Elo Favorite (Standard): Antonina Shevchenko (1347.90) [+39.66] – Win%: 54.52
Elo Favorite (Modified): Antonina Shevchenko (1422.49) [+47.78] – Win%: 55.21
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Antonina Shevchenko 105, Lucie Pudilova 161
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Even: Both have 1 win(s) against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#47] Gerald Meerschaert (28-11-0, +129) vs. [#110] Trevin Giles (11-1-0, -157)

Last 3 Fights: Gerald Meerschaert (1-2-0)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#41MW] Kevin Holland (16-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#6MW] Jack Hermansson (20-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:25 of round 1
2018-07-06: W vs. [#77MW] Oskar Piechota (11-1-1) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Trevin Giles (2-1-0)
2019-05-18: L vs. [#34MW] Zak Cummings (23-6-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:01 of round 3
2017-12-09: W vs. [*] Antonio Braga Neto (9-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:27 of round 3
2017-07-08: W vs. [#235LHW] James Bochnovic (9-5-0) via KO (Punch) in 2:54 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Trevin Giles – Win%: 58.31
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gerald Meerschaert (1609.81) [+15.41] – Win%: 51.76
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gerald Meerschaert (1686.97) [+72.12] – Win%: 57.83
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gerald Meerschaert 126, Trevin Giles 77
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#80] Darko Stosic (13-2-0, -131) vs. [#141] Kennedy Nzechukwu (6-1-0, +106)

Last 3 Fights: Darko Stosic (2-1-0)
2019-06-01: L vs. [#54LHW] Devin Clark (10-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-07-22: W vs. [#81LHW] Jeremy Kimball (17-8-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 3:13 of round 1
2017-09-30: W vs. [*] Tomasz Czerwinski (9-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:00 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (2-1-0)
2019-03-30: L vs. [#71LHW] Paul Craig (11-4-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:20 of round 3
2018-08-07: W vs. [#292LHW] Dennis Bryant (5-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1
2018-05-25: W vs. [NA] Corey Johnson (0-1-0) via TKO in of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Darko Stosic – Win%: 53.88
Elo Favorite (Standard): Darko Stosic (1500.10) [+179.66] – Win%: 69.44
Elo Favorite (Modified): Darko Stosic (1524.90) [+141.53] – Win%: 65.01
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Darko Stosic 63, Kennedy Nzechukwu 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#23] Ramazan Emeev (18-3-0, -253) vs. [#39] Claudio Henrique Da Silva (13-1-0, +202)

Last 3 Fights: Ramazan Emeev (3-0-0)
2018-09-15: W vs. [#277WW] Stefan Sekulic (12-3-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-05-12: W vs. [#136WW] Alberto Mina (13-1-0) via UD ()
2017-10-21: W vs. [#30LHW] Sam Alvey (33-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Claudio Henrique Da Silva (3-0-0)
2019-03-16: W vs. [#129WW] Danny Roberts (16-5-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 2:37 of round 3
2018-05-27: W vs. [#89WW] Nordine Taleb (15-6-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:31 of round 1
2014-11-08: W vs. [#5WW] Leon Edwards (18-3-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ramazan Emeev – Win%: 68.40
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ramazan Emeev (2010.10) [+163.99] – Win%: 67.90
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ramazan Emeev (1974.80) [+144.43] – Win%: 65.30
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ramazan Emeev 322, Claudio Henrique Da Silva 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Welterweight (170)
[#256] Salim Touahri (10-3-0) vs. [#371] Zelim Imadaev (8-1-0)

Last 3 Fights: Salim Touahri (1-2-0)
2018-12-01: L vs. [#164WW] Keita Nakamura (34-10-2) via SD (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-10-21: L vs. [#47WW] Warlley Alves (13-3-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2016-10-29: W vs. [*] Bayzet Khatkhokhu (5-3-0) via KO (Punch) in 3:11 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Zelim Imadaev (2-1-0)
2019-04-13: L vs. [#55WW] Max Griffin (15-6-0) via MD (28-28, 29-27, 29-27)
2018-03-30: W vs. [*] Ivan Gluhak (17-9-1) via KO (Punch) in 0:13 of round 1
2017-09-29: W vs. [#1077WW] Yuri Izotov (9-10-0) via KO (Spinning Back Elbow) in 3:17 of round 1

Elo Favorite (Standard): Salim Touahri (1402.75) [+37.09] – Win%: 54.23
Elo Favorite (Modified): Salim Touahri (1458.14) [+19.59] – Win%: 52.14
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Salim Touahri 245, Zelim Imadaev 112
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#52] Scott Holtzman (12-3-0, -303) vs. [#187] Dong Hyun Ma (17-9-3, +244)

Last 3 Fights: Scott Holtzman (2-1-0)
2019-02-17: L vs. [#29LW] Nik Lentz (30-10-2) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#68LW] Alan Patrick Silva Alves (15-2-0) via KO (Elbows) in 3:42 of round 3
2017-12-09: W vs. [#255LW] Darrell Horcher (13-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Dong Hyun Ma (2-1-0)
2019-02-09: L vs. [#57LW] Devonte Smith (10-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:53 of round 1
2018-02-10: W vs. [#60LW] Damien Brown (19-12-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
2017-09-22: W vs. [#131LW] Takanori Gomi (36-15-0) via TKO (Punches) in 1:30 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Scott Holtzman – Win%: 72.11
Elo Favorite (Standard): Scott Holtzman (1681.58) [+222.95] – Win%: 73.47
Elo Favorite (Modified): Scott Holtzman (1694.08) [+252.12] – Win%: 75.10
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Scott Holtzman 167, Dong Hyun Ma 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Colby Covington
Highest Stored DD Rating: Colby Covington
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Colby Covington vs. Robbie Lawler
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Colby Covington vs. Robbie Lawler
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Great [****]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Fair [**½]
Run Date: 2019-7-29