Fight Matrix Program – UFC on ESPN 2: Barboza vs Gaethje (03-30-2019)

25 Mar , 2019,
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Lightweight (155)
[#9] Edson Barboza (20-6-0, -153) vs. [#11] Justin Gaethje (19-2-0, +128)
Edson Barboza is the All-Time #27 ranked Lightweight fighter.
Justin Gaethje is the All-Time #36 ranked Lightweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Edson Barboza (1-2-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#23LW] Dan Hooker (17-8-0) via KO (Punch to the Body) in 2:19 of round 3
2018-04-21: L vs. [#8LW] Kevin Lee (17-4-0) via TKO (Doctor Stoppage) in 2:18 of round 5
2017-12-30: L vs. [#1LW/#7DD/#7P4P] Khabib Nurmagomedov (27-0-0) via UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)

Last 3 Fights: Justin Gaethje (1-2-0)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#24LW] James Vick (13-3-0) via KO (Punches) in 1:27 of round 1
2018-04-14: L vs. [#3LW] Dustin Poirier (24-5-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:33 of round 4
2017-12-02: L vs. [#5LW] Eddie Alvarez (29-6-0) via KO (Knee) in 3:59 of round 3

Odds Favorite (Implied): Edson Barboza – Win%: 57.96
Elo Favorite (Standard): Justin Gaethje (2027.70) [+21.44] – Win%: 52.45
Elo Favorite (Modified): Justin Gaethje (1994.91) [+9.36] – Win%: 51.03
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Edson Barboza 105, Justin Gaethje 217
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Justin Gaethje leads 1-0
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Middleweight (185)
[#14] David Branch (22-5-0, +100) vs. [#19] Jack Hermansson (18-4-0, -124)
David Branch is the All-Time #50 ranked Middleweight fighter.

Last 3 Fights: David Branch (1-2-0)
2018-11-03: L vs. [#10MW] Jared Cannonier (11-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:29 of round 2
2018-04-21: W vs. [#7LHW] Thiago Santos (21-6-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:30 of round 1
2017-09-16: L vs. [#6MW] Luke Rockhold (16-4-0) via TKO (Submission to Punches) in 4:05 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Jack Hermansson (2-1-0)
2018-12-15: W vs. [#39MW] Gerald Meerschaert (28-10-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:25 of round 1
2018-05-12: W vs. [*] Thales Leites (28-9-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:10 of round 3
2017-10-28: L vs. [#7LHW] Thiago Santos (21-6-0) via TKO (Punches) in 4:59 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Jack Hermansson – Win%: 52.54
Elo Favorite (Standard): David Branch (1932.02) [+47.25] – Win%: 55.38
Elo Favorite (Modified): David Branch (1910.58) [+9.07] – Win%: 50.99
Days Since Last Pro Fight: David Branch 147, Jack Hermansson 105
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: David Branch leads 1-0
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Featherweight (145)
[#15] Josh Emmett (13-2-0, -106) vs. [#16] Michael Johnson (19-13-0, -118)

Last 3 Fights: Josh Emmett (2-1-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#9FW] Jeremy Stephens (28-16-0) via KO (Elbows) in 1:35 of round 2
2017-12-16: W vs. [#8FW] Ricardo Lamas (19-7-0) via KO (Punch) in 4:33 of round 1
2017-10-21: W vs. [*] Felipe Arantes (18-10-1) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-25)

Last 3 Fights: Michael Johnson (2-1-0)
2018-10-27: W vs. [#95FW] Artem Lobov (14-15-1) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
2018-08-25: W vs. [#19FW] Andre Fili (19-6-0) via SD (29-28, 29-28, 27-30)
2018-01-14: L vs. [#18FW] Darren Elkins (24-7-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:22 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Michael Johnson – Win%: 51.26
Elo Favorite (Standard): Michael Johnson (1862.82) [+100.30] – Win%: 61.26
Elo Favorite (Modified): Michael Johnson (1792.41) [+8.33] – Win%: 50.91
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Josh Emmett 399, Michael Johnson 154
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#8] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-3-0, -150) vs. [#10] Michelle Waterson (16-6-0, +125)
Michelle Waterson is the All-Time #38 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2-1-0)
2018-09-08: L vs. [#2SW/#4DD/#3P4P] Jessica Andrade (19-6-0) via KO (Punch) in 1:58 of round 1
2018-04-07: W vs. [#17SW] Felice Herrig (14-8-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2017-10-21: W vs. [#44SW] Jodie Esquibel (6-4-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Michelle Waterson (2-1-0)
2018-10-06: W vs. [#17SW] Felice Herrig (14-8-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-26)
2018-04-14: W vs. [#16SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via SD (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-12-02: L vs. [#13SW] Tecia Torres (10-4-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Win%: 57.44
Elo Favorite (Standard): Karolina Kowalkiewicz (1612.31) [+58.13] – Win%: 56.60
Elo Favorite (Modified): Karolina Kowalkiewicz (1543.63) [+5.59] – Win%: 50.61
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Karolina Kowalkiewicz 203, Michelle Waterson 175
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: Karolina Kowalkiewicz leads 2-1
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Light Heavyweight (205)
[#59] Paul Craig (10-3-0, +191) vs. [#94] Kennedy Nzechukwu (6-0-0, -237)

Last 3 Fights: Paul Craig (1-2-0)
2018-12-01: L vs. [#16LHW] Jim Crute (10-0-0) via Submission (Kimura) in 4:51 of round 3
2018-03-17: W vs. [#28LHW] Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-0) via Submission (Triangle Choke) in 4:59 of round 3
2017-07-16: L vs. [#77LHW] Khalil Rountree (7-4-0) via KO (Punches) in 4:56 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Kennedy Nzechukwu (3-0-0)
2018-08-07: W vs. [#254LHW] Dennis Bryant (5-2-0) via TKO (Head Kick and Punches) in 1:48 of round 1
2018-05-25: W vs. [NA] Corey Johnson (0-1-0) via TKO in of round 2
2018-03-10: W vs. [NA] Andre Kavanaugh (7-14-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:40 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kennedy Nzechukwu – Win%: 67.17
Elo Favorite (Standard): Paul Craig (1432.41) [+28.87] – Win%: 53.29
Elo Favorite (Modified): Paul Craig (1494.91) [+32.24] – Win%: 53.52
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Paul Craig 119, Kennedy Nzechukwu 235
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#68] Sheymon Moraes (11-2-0, +151) vs. [#198] Sodiq Yusuff (8-1-0, -180)

Last 3 Fights: Sheymon Moraes (2-1-0)
2018-11-03: W vs. [#91FW] Julio Arce (15-3-0) via SD (29-28, 30-26, 28-29)
2018-08-04: W vs. [#219FW] Matt Sayles (7-2-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-11-25: L vs. [#7FW] Zabit Magomedsharipov (17-1-0) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 4:30 of round 3

Last 3 Fights: Sodiq Yusuff (3-0-0)
2018-12-01: W vs. [#1199FW] Suman Mokhtarian (8-1-0) via TKO (Punches) in 2:14 of round 1
2018-07-24: W vs. [#451FW] Mike Davis (6-1-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-03-02: W vs. [#848FW] Dylan Tuke (4-2-0) via TKO (Punches) in 0:46 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sodiq Yusuff – Win%: 61.74
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sheymon Moraes (1755.01) [+255.76] – Win%: 76.29
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sheymon Moraes (1705.92) [+128.35] – Win%: 63.69
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sheymon Moraes 147, Sodiq Yusuff 119
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Strawweight (115)
[#19] Marina Rodriguez (11-0-1, -301) vs. [#26] Jessica Aguilar (20-7-0, +244)
Jessica Aguilar is the All-Time #15 ranked Women’s fighter.

Last 3 Fights: Marina Rodriguez (2-0-1)
2018-09-22: D vs. [#9SW] Randa Markos (9-6-1) via Draw (Majority) in 5:00 of round 3
2018-08-11: W vs. [#106SW] Maria de Oliveira Neta (10-4-0) via TKO (Punches) in 3:03 of round 1
2017-12-16: W vs. [#69FLY] Natalia Cristina da Silva (9-6-1) via UD ()

Last 3 Fights: Jessica Aguilar (1-2-0)
2018-11-24: L vs. [#4SW/#7P4P] Weili Zhang (19-1-0) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:41 of round 1
2018-07-14: W vs. [#44SW] Jodie Esquibel (6-4-0) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 29-28)
2017-05-13: L vs. [#16SW] Cortney Casey (8-7-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Marina Rodriguez – Win%: 72.08
Elo Favorite (Standard): Marina Rodriguez (1504.65) [+21.19] – Win%: 52.42
Elo Favorite (Modified): Marina Rodriguez (1515.63) [+8.00] – Win%: 50.88
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Marina Rodriguez 189, Jessica Aguilar 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Lightweight (155)
[#56] Desmond Green (21-8-0, -396) vs. [#91] Ross Pearson (20-15-0, +303)

Last 3 Fights: Desmond Green (1-2-0)
2018-09-15: L vs. [#28LW] Mairbek Taisumov (27-5-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-06-01: W vs. [#68LW] Gleison Tibau (33-13-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-27)
2018-02-03: L vs. [#35WW] Michel Prazeres (26-3-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Last 3 Fights: Ross Pearson (1-2-0)
2018-07-28: L vs. [#46LW] John Makdessi (17-6-0) via UD (30-26, 29-28, 29-27)
2018-02-10: W vs. [#293LW] Mizuto Hirota (18-10-2) via UD (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-06-10: L vs. [#23LW] Dan Hooker (17-8-0) via KO (Knee) in 3:02 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Desmond Green – Win%: 76.29
Elo Favorite (Standard): Desmond Green (1718.73) [+209.87] – Win%: 72.29
Elo Favorite (Modified): Desmond Green (1697.39) [+157.30] – Win%: 66.56
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Desmond Green 196, Ross Pearson 245
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Featherweight (145)
[#29] Kevin Aguilar (16-1-0, -102) vs. [#41] Enrique Barzola (16-3-1, -121)

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Aguilar (3-0-0)
2018-11-30: W vs. [#46FW] Rick Glenn (21-6-1) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2018-07-10: W vs. [#257LW] Joey Gomez (7-1-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
2018-05-25: W vs. [#96FW] Thanh Le (8-2-0) via KO (Punches) in 2:44 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Enrique Barzola (3-0-0)
2018-05-19: W vs. [#159FW] Brandon Davis (9-5-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
2018-01-20: W vs. [#147FW] Matt Bessette (22-9-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2017-05-13: W vs. [#26FW] Gabriel Benitez (21-6-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Enrique Barzola – Win%: 52.01
Elo Favorite (Standard): Kevin Aguilar (1855.92) [+166.07] – Win%: 68.11
Elo Favorite (Modified): Kevin Aguilar (1804.55) [+82.35] – Win%: 58.92
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Kevin Aguilar 120, Enrique Barzola 315
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Middleweight (185)
[#39] Gerald Meerschaert (28-10-0, +182) vs. [#77] Kevin Holland (14-4-0, -217)

Last 3 Fights: Gerald Meerschaert (2-1-0)
2018-12-15: L vs. [#19MW] Jack Hermansson (18-4-0) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) in 4:25 of round 1
2018-07-06: W vs. [#76MW] Oskar Piechota (11-1-1) via Technical Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:55 of round 2
2017-12-01: W vs. [#80MW] Eric Spicely (11-4-0) via KO (Kick to the Body) in 2:18 of round 2

Last 3 Fights: Kevin Holland (2-1-0)
2018-11-24: W vs. [#179MW] John Phillips (21-9-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 4:05 of round 3
2018-08-04: L vs. [#7LHW] Thiago Santos (21-6-0) via UD (29-27, 29-26, 29-27)
2018-06-12: W vs. [#424WW] Will Santiago Jr. (9-6-0) via UD ()

Odds Favorite (Implied): Kevin Holland – Win%: 65.87
Elo Favorite (Standard): Gerald Meerschaert (1710.07) [+59.86] – Win%: 56.80
Elo Favorite (Modified): Gerald Meerschaert (1728.34) [+67.28] – Win%: 57.31
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Gerald Meerschaert 105, Kevin Holland 126
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[*] Ray Borg (11-3-0, -414) vs. [#156] Kyler Phillips (6-1-0, +323)

Last 3 Fights: Ray Borg (2-1-0)
2017-10-07: L vs. [#2FLY/#5DD/#5P4P] Demetrious Johnson (27-3-1) via Submission (Armbar) in 3:15 of round 5
2017-03-11: W vs. [#3FLY] Jussier da Silva (23-5-0) via UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
2016-12-30: W vs. [#154BW] Louis Smolka (15-6-0) via UD (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Kyler Phillips (2-1-0)
2019-02-01: W vs. [#566BW] Emeka Ifekandu (6-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 2:30 of round 1
2018-10-20: L vs. [#20BW] Victor Henry (17-4-0) via SD ()
2017-08-01: W vs. [*] James Gray Jr. (4-2-0) via TKO (Elbows and Punches) in 0:46 of round 1

Odds Favorite (Implied): Ray Borg – Win%: 77.30
Elo Favorite (Standard): Ray Borg (1730.35) [+381.18] – Win%: 85.08
Elo Favorite (Modified): Ray Borg (1755.77) [+263.51] – Win%: 76.02
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Ray Borg 539, Kyler Phillips 57
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Women Flyweight (125)
[#24] Sabina Mazo (6-0-0, -175) vs. [#30SW] Maryna Moroz (8-3-0, +144)

Last 3 Fights: Sabina Mazo (3-0-0)
2018-11-16: W vs. [#155FLY] Caroline Yariwake da Cruz (7-3-0) via UD (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
2018-04-20: W vs. [#130FLY] Shannon Sinn (5-6-0) via UD (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
2017-09-22: W vs. [#210SW] Linsey Williams (2-3-0) via KO (Head Kick) in 4:26 of round 1

Last 3 Fights: Maryna Moroz (1-2-0)
2018-02-24: L vs. [#21SW] Angela Hill (8-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
2017-06-25: L vs. [#11SW] Carla Esparza (13-6-0) via UD (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
2016-08-06: W vs. [#24SW] Danielle Taylor (10-4-0) via SD (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)

Odds Favorite (Implied): Sabina Mazo – Win%: 60.82
Elo Favorite (Standard): Sabina Mazo (1440.74) [+123.22] – Win%: 63.71
Elo Favorite (Modified): Sabina Mazo (1560.24) [+205.55] – Win%: 71.09
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Sabina Mazo 134, Maryna Moroz 399
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Bantamweight (135)
[#14FLY] Alex Perez (21-5-0, -252) vs. [#97] Mark De La Rosa (11-1-0, +212)

Last 3 Fights: Alex Perez (2-1-0)
2018-11-30: L vs. [#4FLY] Joseph Benavidez (27-5-0) via TKO (Strikes) in 4:19 of round 1
2018-08-04: W vs. [#27FLY] Jose Torres (8-1-0) via KO (Punches) in 3:36 of round 1
2018-02-24: W vs. [#34FLY] Eric Shelton (12-6-0) via UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Last 3 Fights: Mark De La Rosa (2-1-0)
2018-11-10: W vs. [#46FLY] Joby Sanchez (12-4-0) via SD (29-28, 30-27, 28-29)
2018-07-14: W vs. [#117FLY] Elias Garcia (6-2-0) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in 2:00 of round 2
2017-12-30: L vs. [*] Tim Elliott (15-8-1) via Submission (Anaconda Choke) in 1:41 of round 2

Odds Favorite (Implied): Alex Perez – Win%: 69.07
Elo Favorite (Standard): Alex Perez (1683.85) [+43.52] – Win%: 54.95
Elo Favorite (Modified): Alex Perez (1689.31) [+109.36] – Win%: 61.74
Days Since Last Pro Fight: Alex Perez 120, Mark De La Rosa 140
Previous Match-up Record: No previous match-ups.
Wins Against Common Opposition: No common opposition or both are winless against common opposition.
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Notes about the Fight Card
– Highest-rated fighter always listed first.
– A ‘*’ ranking suggests a fighter is inactive.
– An ‘NA’ ranking suggests the fighter is too low for a ranking or we do not have division info for them.
– The Elo Favorite rating info includes any considered fight-specific advantages, such as home advantage.
– The Elo Win% is approximate and includes the favorites probability share of a draw occurring.

Fight Card Statistics

Highest Pre-Bout Raw Rating: Edson Barboza
Highest Stored DD Rating: Edson Barboza
Highest Pre-Bout Fight Raw Rating: Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje
Highest Stored Fight DD Rating: Edson Barboza vs. Justin Gaethje
Event Matchmaking Competitiveness Rating (of 5*): Outstanding [****½]
Total Event MMA Rankings Impact (of 5*): Moderate [***]
Run Date: 2019-3-25