Bang for Your Buck: UFC on Fox 16

It’s been a marathon of a month for UFC.  After a Pay-Per-View, a TUF Finale, and a couple of Fight Nights, we’re wrapping up July with the fifth UFC event for the month.  This one has a very solid line up: a bantamweight title fight topping the bill, backed by seven other interesting matchups – all broadcast for free on Fox.  Even the Fight Pass prelims have a couple of fights worth tuning into.  All the fights are very closely matched-up, at least according to sports betting odds if not from the ranking standpoint.

Main Event: (C) [#1 BW] T.J. Dillashaw vs [#2 BW] Renan Barao for the UFC Bantamweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why:  In most cases, I would valuate a title fight featuring the top two ranked fighters in their weight class at or near the $25 single-fight limit that I’ve set for myself.  However, for this fight I was struggling to even give it $20. The main reason for this is the weird state of the bantamweight division.  This is the most splintered men’s division in the sport, with four of the Top 10 fighters outside of the UFC (and only two of those four are in the same organization).  The rest of the Top 10 is taken up by Dominic Cruz, who’s fought once since 2011 and suffered another injury after his only fight; Urijah Faber, who has pretty much run out of title shots at any weight class and is now in the stage of his career where he will mostly be involved in ‘feature fights’; Raphael Assuncao; and somehow Manny Gamburyan.  Assuncao is on a seven win streak and holds a split decision win over Dillashaw, so he will almost certainly be the next challenger for the title, but he is a rather bland decision fighter.  Outside of the Top 10, the UFC’s best prospects are Aljamain Sterling and Thomas Almeida, and it would be logical to match them up next, but I don’t believe that either man is ready for a title shot.  Unfortunately one of them will most likely be rushed into it anyhow, unless UFC is able to steal one of the other top bantamweights away from the competition.

As for the actual fight at hand, it also has some odd circumstances surrounding it.  Dillashaw came into the first fight with Barao as a huge underdog, but overcame the odds and dominated the reigning champion, hurting him early in the first round and finishing him in the fifth.  An immediate rematch was scheduled (of course), but disintegrated at the last minute when Barao fell ill as he was attempting to make weight.  TJ Dillashaw ended up defending against the fight night substitute Joe Soto, while Barao had to take on Mitch Gagnon to earn his rematch again. Though both men finished their opponents, neither looked particularly impressive considering how much of a step down they were taking.  Still, this is a good fight – the best that the UFC has to work with in the division at the moment.  It just doesn’t feel like the winner of this fight can truly claim to be the best bantamweight in the world, with Dominic Cruz still in the game and so many top fighters competing outside of the UFC.

Fight: [#3 W135] Miesha Tate vs [#5 W135] Jessica Eye

Worth: $5

Why: Good news: this is probably the one of the more entertaining and competitive fights in the women’s bantamweight division, and the most likely to produce the next contender for the winner of Ronda Rousey vs Bethe Correia.  Bad news: the high likelihood of Rousey vs Tate 3.

Fight: [#15 LW] Edson Barboza vs [#41 LW] Paul Felder

Worth: $10

Why: The first of several fun lightweight fights on this card, this one features an undefeated prospect taking on a young veteran who has struggled with the transition from prospect to contender level.  Paul Felder is 9-0, with 7 T/KO stoppages, including a spinning kick and a spinning back fist in his last three fights.   Barboza of course has had an infamous spinning kick KO of his own – spinning shit is certain to be thrown in this fight.

Fight: [#26 LW] Joe Lauzon vs [#44 LW] Takanori Gomi

Worth: $10

Why: While neither guy is going anywhere in the division, this fight just has ‘awesome’ written all over it. Guaranteed fight of the night candidate.

Fight: [#33 LHW] Gian Villante vs [NR] Tom Lawlor

Worth: $2.50

Why: After a two year layoff, former ‘TUF’ contestant and middleweight veteran Tom Lawlor is making his return to the Octagon, now as a light heavyweight. Gian Villante, who is on a two win streak, will welcome Lawlor to the division.  Villante is a very hit-or-miss fighter, and Lawlor’s weight-in antics are sometimes more enterntaining than his fights, so the ‘featured prelim’ of the night could be either a decent fight or a snoozer.

Fight:  [#34 LW] Jim Miller vs [#57 LW] Danny Castillo

Worth: $10

Why: Another good lightweight fight on the undercard.  Miller and Castillo are both long time veterans with a lot of fight mileage, and look to be on the down slope of their prospective careers, but still usually deliver exciting performances.  Having lost their last two fights, this one is a must win for both guys.

Fight: [#31 WW] Kenny Robertson vs [#35 WW] Ben Saunders

Worth: $10

Why: Ben ‘Killa B’ Saunders is 2-0 so far in his second UFC stint, though he didn’t get a chance to showcase any of his skills in his last fight – a quick ‘freak injury’ win over Joe Riggs.  Meanwhile his opponent Kenny Robertson, who started his UFC career at 1-3, has won three in a row, two of them first round finishes. Both guys are improving and may be entering their peak,  and this could be the break-out fight that they both need to rise in a crowded welterweight division.

Fight: [#22 BW] Bryan Caraway vs [#36 BW] Eddie Wineland

Worth: $5

Why: I’ve talked about being generally uninspired by UFC’s bantamweight division, and this is sort of an uninspiring matchup, even though it has potential to be a good fight.   Bryan Caraway has actually done surprisingly well since his UFC debut, winning four fights by submission while losing two close decisions, one of them to the top contender Assuncao.   Hard-hitting former WEC standout Eddie Wineland has had a minor career resurrection in UFC, culminating with a shot at then champion Renan Barao.  He came up short in his shot at the title, bounced back with a win over Yves Jabouin, but then was brutally knocked out and had his jaw broken by unheralded Johny Eduardo.  Wineland contemplated retirement after the loss, but is now back – this time fighting a submission expert.  It’s a fairly interesting matchup of styles, but also a fairly meaningless fight in regards to the title picture, despite the shallowness of the division.

Prelims (UFC Fight Pass)

Fight: [#51 LW] Daron Cruickshank vs  [#72 LW] James Krause

Worth: $2.50

Why:  With so many good lightweight matchups on this card, a couple of them were bound to be buried on the Fight Pass prelims.  This is a ‘win big or go home’ fight for two guys who struggled to make an impact in an ultra-competitive division.  Less so for Cruikshank, who has shown occasional glimpses of brilliance but has not been able to effectively put his game together; more so for Krause, who has mostly shown mediocrity.  Still, it should be a fun matchup of strikers, though Daron occasionally turns into a wrestler in the cage – sometimes to his own detriment.

Fight: [#73 LW] Ramsey Nijem vs [#183 LW] Andrew Holbrook

Worth: $2.50

Why:  Wrapping up the lightweight-themed card is another fight that should provide some good action for the Fight Pass subscribers.  Ramsey Nijem is a fun fighter who will have a hard time with anyone ranked in the Top 50. Here, he is getting an undefeated UFC debutante Andrew Holbrook, who is 9-0 with all wins by the way of submission, and all but one of those coming in the first round.  This is his chance to make a big UFC debut against a somewhat known opponent; unfortunately Holbrook’s competition has been nowhere near UFC level, so he will most likely get demolished.

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Fox Card Worth: $77.50
Fox Card Cost: $0
Net Value: $77.50

Event Net Value (excluding Fight Pass prelims): $77.50

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Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $5.00
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $69.93
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-4.43

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Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $165.00