Bang for Your Buck: UFC 189

Jul 7, 2015
oleg

UFC 189 is one of the most anticipated, and definitely the most hyped, Pay-Per-View event of the year thus far. The hype was mainly centered around Conor McGregor challenging Jose Aldo for the featherweight championship. Of course, no UFC event is left untouched by the injury curse, and a couple of weeks before the event Aldo suffered a rib injury in training.  After much hemming and hawing regarding the severity of his injury and whether he will be able to compete, it was finally announced that Jose’s rib is broken, and Chad Mendes will step up on short notice to face McGregor for an interim belt.

Despite the main event going down the crapper, this still remains of the most stacked cards in recent memory, and one of the few that will meet and even exceed the price of a UFC PPV. I usually wait until a day or two before the event to publish these blogs, as to account for last minute injuries and other unexpected changes in the line up; however with 4 UFC events in an 8-day span I’ll have to get started early, and keep it short.  Let’s just hope the rest of this card remains intact till Saturday.

Main Card (Pay-Per-View)

Main Event: [#4 FW] Chad Mendes vs [#6 FW] Conor McGregor  for the Interim UFC Featherweight Championship

Worth: $20

Why: Though I was looking forward to Aldo – McGregor, I am really not that upset about this fight falling through.  The UFC hype machine fast-tracked Conor to a title shot without him having to face any of the other top contenders in the division, or an opponent with legitimate wrestling/grappling credentials. The match-up with Mendes addresses both of the above critiques, and will answer a few questions about whether McGregor is just hype or the real deal.  Creating an interim title for a rib injury is silly but understandable:  it allows UFC to keep McGregor in the main event, and it’s obvious that they want to put some kind of gold around the waist of one of their biggest draws at the moment – even if it’s a meaningless paper belt.  Let’s just ignore the whole interim title thing, and consider it a #1 contender match: if Conor wins, the ‘title unification’ fight with Aldo will be even more anticipated than UFC 189.  Conor McGregor is a very polarizing figure, and the odds have him as a slight favorite, so if you don’t buy into the hype and enjoy MMA betting, here’s your chance to put your money where your mouse is. As for me, I won’t make any predictions on this fight… not even touching it with Mauro Ranallo’s 25-centimeter pole.

Co-Main Event: (C) [#1 WW] Robbie Lawler  vs [#3 WW] Rory MacDonald for the UFC Welterweight Championship

Worth: $22.50

Why: This fight should be the real main event; alas, it has been completely overshadowed by that other main event that didn’t happen.  Nonetheless it’s a great fight.  Lawler and MacDonald already met less than two years ago, and Robbie walked away with a split decision after three rounds.  This time they get the opportunity to go the full five with a belt on the line, and prove who is the better fighter once and for all.  Or at least until the rubber match.

 

Fight: [#14 FW] Dennis Bermudez vs [#17 FW] Jeremy Stephens

Worth: $10

Why: After starting his UFC career with a loss to fellow TUF 14 alum Diego Brandao, Dennis Bermudez won his next seven fights and was knocking on the door of a title shot, before suffering a massive setback with a first round submission loss to Ricardo Lamas.  He will look to get back on the winning track against Jeremy Stephens – who has an incredible 20 UFC fights to his name despite being only 29 years old.  Stephens began his career as a lightweight, and is 3-2 since dropping down to featherweight division, with two unanimous decision losses in his last two bouts.  Both guys have a lot to prove here – expect them to come out swinging.

 

Fight:  [#23 WW] Gunnar Nelson vs  [#45 WW] Brandon Thatch

Worth: $10

Why: This is another fight between two guys with a lot to prove.  Nelson and Thatch were two of the hottest prospects in the welterweight division, however both suffered a loss in their most recent fights after taking a step up in competition.  They will be looking for redemption in a classic ‘striker vs grappler’ matchup.

 

Fight: [#26 BW] Thomas Almeida vs [#15 FLW] Brad Pickett

Worth: $7.50

Why: Undefeated in 18 professional fights, and having stopped all but one of his opponents, 23-year-old Thomas Almeida might be the biggest commodity in the UFC’s bantamweight division.   The only thing he lacks is a win over a recognizable ‘name’ fighter – and Brad ‘One Punch’ Pickett provides a perfect opportunity to add one to his resume.  Pickett is a WEC veteran who went 3-3 in UFC’s bantamweight division, before dropping down to 125 lbs.  Pickett won his flyweight debut, but then lost two straight, and is now going to try his luck at bantamweight once again.  I don’t like his chances here against a much younger and bigger opponent.

 

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Fight:  [#11 WW] Matt Brown vs [#21 WW] Tim Means

Worth: $10

Why:  You know it’s a stacked card when Matt Brown ends up on the prelims.  He is also taking on a very game and dangerous prospect, Tim ‘Dirty Bird’ Means, who’s quietly racked up a 4-win streak in the UFC finishing his last two opponents in an impressive fashion.  Both guys are relentless strikers, and this should be a very fun slugfest.

 

Fight: [#107 WW] Alex Garcia vs [NR] Mike Swick

Worth: $2.50

Why: One word: nostalgia.  Besides Diego Sanchez, Mike ‘Quick’ Swick is the only contestant from The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 who is still on the UFC roster. He also hasn’t fought since December 2012 due to health issues.  I have a feeling his return to the Octagon will not make him any healthier… but hey, maybe we will finally get to see that Swick vs Joe ‘Diesel’ Riggs fight that all the fans have been dreaming about for over the past 10 years.  One can only hope, right?

 

Preliminary Card (Fight Pass)

Fight:  [#17 FLW] Neil Seery vs  [#25 FLW] Louis Smolka

Worth: $1

Why: I’ll give this fight a nominal $1 since both opponents are ranked in the Top 25 of their weight class, and Louis Smolka may be a viable prospect, but having a journeyman like Neil Seery ranked so high really speaks for the shallowness of the flyweight division.

Pay-Per-View Card Worth: $70
Event Price: $59.99
Net Value: $10.01

Fox Sports 1 Prelims Worth: $12.50
Fox Sports 1 Valuation: $2 (see how I came up with this valuation)
Net Value: $10.50

Event Net Value: $20.51

Fight Pass Prelims Worth: $1
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Cost: $69.93
Fight Pass Year-to-Date Value: $-9.43

PPV YTD Worth: $401
PPV YTD Cost: $479.92
PPV YTD Net Value: $-78.92

Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Worth: $286.50
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Valuation: $63
Cable (FS1/FS2/FX) YTD Net Value: $223.5

Fox YTD Worth/Net Value: $87.50

Total YTD Net Value (excluding Fight Pass): $208.58

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