This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
|Fight||Odds Favorite||Rating Favorite||I’d bet on||“Gotchas”|
|Guimaraes vs. Gyu Lim||Gyu Lim (-325 / Large)||Guimaraes (1.22x / Very Small)||Guimaraes||#3, #4|
|Caceres vs. Ho Kang||Caceres (-151 / Small)||Caceres (1.25x / Very Small)||PASS||#4|
|Marcello vs. Tokudome||Marcello (-156 / Small)||Marcello (1.66x / Moderate)||Marcello||#4|
|Mizugaki vs. Caraway||Mizugaki (-231 / Moderate)||Mizugaki (1.08x / Pick ‘Em)||Caraway||#4|
|Fukuda vs. Tavares||Fukuda (-118 / Pick ‘Em)||Fukuda (1.02x / Pick ‘Em)||PASS||#4|
|Yahya vs. Hirota||Hirota (-117 / Pick ‘Em)||Hirota (1.28x / Small)||PASS||#1|
|Bahadurzada vs. Hyun Kim||Hyun Kim (-295 / Moderate)||Bahadurzada (1.54x / Moderate)||Bahadurzada||#4|
|Lombard vs. Okami||Lombard (-204 / Moderate)||Lombard (1.05x / Pick ‘Em)||Okami||#4|
|Sanchez vs. Gomi||Sanchez (-294 / Moderate)||Sanchez (1.82x / Moderate)||PASS||#4|
|Struve vs. Hunt||Struve (-175 / Small)||Struve (1.25x / Very Small)||Hunt|
|Silva vs. Stann||Stann (-253 / Moderate)||Stann (1.48x / Moderate)||PASS||#1|
Now, to the results — given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. This particular card has a ton of question marks.
Favorites to consider: Marcello. I almost went with a PASS here, due to the home advantage — but Marcello projects to a slightly larger favorite than the odds suggest. Narrow bet here.
Underdogs to consider:
Hunt over Struve – Very nearly a pass. I am banking on Hunt’s relative home advantage, given his career in Japan and familiarity with east Asia to make him just barely worth a bet.
Caraway over Mizugaki – See above, but basically in reverse. Mizugaki seems like the guy to go with, but I cannot ignore the rating vs. odds difference.
Okami over Lombard – Okami and our rating system have had their tough times, but we like him here, especially given the location.
Guimaraes over Gyu Lim – Guimaraes projects as one of the strongest underdog bets in this series, so far– if you ignore the fact that his last fight could have went either way. Still, this seems like a 50/50.
Badhadurzada over Hyun Kim – The system has been big on Siyar for a long time now. Come and ride the train.
Posted on March 1, 2013 by jcs