This is not an attempt to suggest the rating system is more accurate than gambling odds. Gamblers can analyze each fight individually, while the rating system uses a variety of mathematical routines to supply a primary fighter rating that is focused on ranking recent achievement, with a secondary priority of gauging future expectation.
With that said, there are some caveats to using the rating vs. odds comparison straight-up — the “Gotcha” list:
- System inability to project the exact effects of a recent divisional change.
- System inability to project the exact effects of recent inactivity.
- Poor matchmaking / limited careers / “changing of the guard”.
- Notable home advantage.
- System inability to project style differences.
- System inability to factor in bad judging decisions.
But this stuff (especially #5) is pretty much common sense. We try to partially factor in #1-#3 when we compute the ratings, but #5 and #6 is something that the human can factor in, that the system can’t. For the sake of these articles, we’ll attempt to factor in #4 when relevant. Home advantage can have a slight effect, but likely not enough to sway the “I’d bet on” decision.
Experienced gamblers know that it’s not about being right the most, it’s about making the most money. So in the usual table, I’ll add the “I’d bet on” column and analyze the rating/odds gap plus points #1-4 that I listed above.I’ll leave #5 and #6 to the fully subjective analyses (except for when Leonard Garcia is involved for #6) — of which I’m sure there will be plenty.
The gotchas aren’t necessarily comprehensive, but I have noted them as I come across them and when they are considered in the decision.
Having said all that, let’s get started:
Ratings vs. Odds
|Fight||Odds Favorite||Rating Favorite||I’d bet on||“Gotchas”|
|Camus vs. Kimura||Camus (-156 / Small)||Kimura (1.15x / Very Small)||PASS||#1|
|Rivera vs. Figueroa||Rivera (-300 / Large)||Figueroa (1.45x / Small)||Figueroa|
|Volkmann vs. Green||Volkmann (-353 / Large)||Volkmann (1.62x / Moderate)||Green|
|Edwards vs. Vallie-Flagg||Edwards (-269 / Moderate)||Edwards (1.49x / Moderate)||PASS|
|Woodley vs. Hieron||Woodley (-150 / Small)||Hieron (1.01x / Nearly Even)||Hieron|
|Tibau vs. Dunham||Tibau (-117 / Pick ‘Em)||Tibau (1.24x / Very Small)||PASS|
|Benavidez vs. McCall||Benavidez (-251 / Moderate)||Benavidez (1.75x / Moderate)||PASS|
|Fitch vs. Maia||Fitch (-184 / Moderate)||Maia (1.24x / Very Small)||Maia|
|Overeem vs. Silva||Overeem (-382 / Large)||Overeem (2.10x / Large)||PASS||#2|
|Evans vs. Little Nog||Evans (-486 / Large)||Evans (2.73x / Very Large)||Evans|
|Aldo vs. Edgar||Aldo (-216 / Moderate)||Edgar (1.32x / Small)||PASS||#1, #2|
Now, to the results – given the odds above:
The PASS suggests that the odds and ratings difference are nearly identical and/or there are too many gotchas, so neither fighter is a good bet. I really want to call Edgar a good bet, given that he’s moving in with an initial point advantage against Aldo and considering Aldo’s recent inactivity. Though, there are too many question marks here.
Favorites to consider: Evans. He is already a large favorite, but he projects as an even larger favorite. Great parlay material.
Underdogs to consider: This appears to be a great event for the underdogs.
- Green over Volkmann – This is the ol’ Hail Mary. Volkmann is the legitimate favorite, but Green is a bit undervalued. A good bet to (potentially) lose a few bucks on.
- Hieron over Woodley – A great value if you think the combo that Nate laid on Woodley was damaging. Otherwise, it’s a fair bet as the system thinks this is even money, so, go Hieron.
- Maia over Fitch – Maia is still lacking a big win at Welterweight, but he may get it here. Fitch looked good last time out, but Silva wasn’t proven. Medium bet on Maia.
- Figueroa over Rivera - Every so often we get a sizeable disagreement between the ratings and odds. Either steer clear, or go big on Figueora.
Posted on January 31, 2013 by jcs