Admittedly, I thought this graph was going to be much more interesting when I envisioned creating it, but perhaps that is because it was far more painful than I had envisioned and now I hate life a little more.
Anyway, I often receive questions about the career all-time rankings, specifically pertaining to the point totals. First, let me explain a few things:
- All fighters listed have been in the Top 10 at Light Heavyweight since we started the career rankings.
- Only Top 10 point totals are displayed for the listed fighters, with the exception of Jon Jones, whose data line starts when he hit 500 points, the minimum displayable amount.
- Randy Couture and Ricardo Arona’s lines are dotted, as they are no longer in the Top 10. A cookie to anyone who can find Arona’s single dot.
- Only three dates are displayed, 5/11 (when we started permanently storing the career ranking lists), 5/12 (when Jon Jones entered the Top 10), 11/12 (the most recent rankings). There were many intermediate releases, so I grouped them by date.
- There are two blips of “common noise”, both in the early third of the rankings. These are likely test releases that quite honestly, I did not filter out because this ultimately took way too long to finish.
- I’ve often commented to readers that effects on the list are not entirely immediate. There is usually some immediate effect to results, but as you can see in the graph, the term “rolling average” is probably a much more accurate way to explain the movement. The methodology was created in such a way for many reasons.
- Everyone gained an automatic ~15% in the 18 months due to increased quality of data, amongst other things. Essentially, the value of a point decreased.
- Chuck, Wanderlei, and Rampage were in a bit of a musical chair situation until recently. With Chuck’s retirement, his point total has went dead. Wanderlei’s has also went stagnant, as his move to Middleweight has become permanent. Rampage remains somewhat relevant and the minute amount of points he continues to squeeze out of his career at 205 seem to have positioned him in the lead, for now.
- Rua and Machida continue to increase their respective positions, although they are certainly the most tumultuous on the list. Check out the “back and forth” as they continue to satisfy and cease to satisfy certain metrics that play huge roles in their positions. Most notably, Rua’s win over Griffin (then his loss to Henderson) and Machida’s recently winless streak over elite competition. They’re both on the upward trend.. for now.
- Evans and Henderson are still making big leaps, while Griffin continues to hold on, inching his point total up — really, only delaying his seemingly inevitable drop off of this list — then again, it seems like it’s going to be a LONG time before there is a new entrant to this Top 10.
As you can probably tell, the real focal point of this graph is Jon Jones. He is skyrocketing up the list and seems to be a sure thing to take Machida’s spot in an upcoming release. In fact, if you follow the trends, Jones should be the top fighter in this list by late 2013 — though his recent injury could slow his ascent, as could a loss, but that remains to be seen.
Also, he made his debut recently in the Absolute list at #23. He’s not going to scale that list quite as quickly, but he should be in the Top 15 relatively soon.
Posted on November 12, 2012 by jcs