Comments on: MMA Fighters rematch a lot! http://www.fightmatrix.com/2008/12/25/mma-fighters-rematch-a-lot/ Mixed Martial Arts Rankings, Records, and Statistics Wed, 08 Feb 2012 04:12:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: ltokuda http://www.fightmatrix.com/2008/12/25/mma-fighters-rematch-a-lot/comment-page-1/#comment-4958 ltokuda Mon, 29 Dec 2008 10:04:38 +0000 http://www.fightmatrix.com/2008/12/25/mma-fighters-rematch-a-lot/#comment-4958 JCS, these are great statistics. I've always thought that statistics like these could be the key to creating an alternate type of rating system. This type of data describes, in statistical terms, what a "decision win" means and what a "KO win" means. Its also interesting that the data so far is pretty consistant with probability theory. For example, if fighter A loses to fighter B by KO in their first fight, then the data suggests that fighter A only has a 32.3% chance of winning the rematch. If fighter A loses by KO to fighter B in their second fight, then probability theory would predict that fighter A has a 0.323 x 0.323 = .104 = 10.4% chance of winning the third fight. In your data, you found that fighters who lost by KO in the first 2 fight won the third fight 11% of the time. This is very close to the 10.4% that probability theory predicts. If you plan to do further research into this, one suggestion I have would be to also look at stats involving 3 fighters. If fighter A beats fighter B and fighter B beats fighter C, then what's the probability of fighter A beating fighter C. These types of statistics might give further insight on how "styles make fights". Great research. Thanks! JCS, these are great statistics. I’ve always thought that statistics like these could be the key to creating an alternate type of rating system. This type of data describes, in statistical terms, what a “decision win” means and what a “KO win” means.

Its also interesting that the data so far is pretty consistant with probability theory. For example, if fighter A loses to fighter B by KO in their first fight, then the data suggests that fighter A only has a 32.3% chance of winning the rematch. If fighter A loses by KO to fighter B in their second fight, then probability theory would predict that fighter A has a 0.323 x 0.323 = .104 = 10.4% chance of winning the third fight. In your data, you found that fighters who lost by KO in the first 2 fight won the third fight 11% of the time. This is very close to the 10.4% that probability theory predicts.

If you plan to do further research into this, one suggestion I have would be to also look at stats involving 3 fighters. If fighter A beats fighter B and fighter B beats fighter C, then what’s the probability of fighter A beating fighter C. These types of statistics might give further insight on how “styles make fights”.

Great research. Thanks!

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